Jaundiced Ireland has heard that Cllr. Vincent P Martin has been approached by and has agreed to join the Green Party in advance of the forthcoming general election. Martin has been an outspoken member of Monaghan County Council, particularly on planning issues. He was an unsuccesful candidate in the 2002 General Election, but took a council seat in 2004. He has built a high profile in the County and is in a strong position to challenge for votes in South Monaghan. This will be a cause of concern to the newly chosen FF candidate Margaret Conlon.
Also doing the rounds in the rumour mill is the possibility that either Sean McCague (ex GAA president) or Dr Ilona Duffy may be persuaded to run as candidates for the Monaghan Hospital Alliance. Such a move would be likely to finish off any possibility of Paudge Connolly retaining his seat.
Should both of these candidates run, it will once again ensure that the Monaghan side of the constituency becomes a veritable bloodbath.
Another recount anybody.
Tuesday 3 April 2007
Thursday 29 March 2007
Ides of March Comes late for Bertie
Beware the Ides of March Bertie. Well the daggers were out in the Senate yesterday for An Taoiseach. Senator Margaret Cox threatened a vote on the Finance Bill and were it not for some quick procedural footwork by FF members, she would have got it. This is an act of open warfare from the Galway Senator on her own party and one which has shocked many.
Its not clear what Cox's motives were on this. She argues that she doesn't feel Galway is getting a fair deal. Perhaps she is preparing a solo run. If so it is likely to be ill fated. Perhaps she is trying to raise her profile pre Seanad election, if so this is equally a crazy idea, considering who will be voting for her. Perhaps the only other explanation is the strangest of all, a genuine outbreak of principles on the floor of the House.
Liam Fitzgeralds attack was more straightforward and much more easy to explain, he was shafted by FF and he's gonna shaft them right back. Given the level of discord in Dublin North East and the amount of people who are supposed to have resigned or made their discontent known within the constituency organisation, this could spell trouble for the Soldiers of Destiny.
All in all, a bad day for Bertie in the Senate.
Its not clear what Cox's motives were on this. She argues that she doesn't feel Galway is getting a fair deal. Perhaps she is preparing a solo run. If so it is likely to be ill fated. Perhaps she is trying to raise her profile pre Seanad election, if so this is equally a crazy idea, considering who will be voting for her. Perhaps the only other explanation is the strangest of all, a genuine outbreak of principles on the floor of the House.
Liam Fitzgeralds attack was more straightforward and much more easy to explain, he was shafted by FF and he's gonna shaft them right back. Given the level of discord in Dublin North East and the amount of people who are supposed to have resigned or made their discontent known within the constituency organisation, this could spell trouble for the Soldiers of Destiny.
All in all, a bad day for Bertie in the Senate.
Cullen Gets it Right At Last
I'm no fan of Martin Cullens, never have been and I doubt that I ever will be, but credit where its due. The Minister has brought into play legislation which will guarantee a mimimum one years ban served on any drink driving offence. It will also reduce the remission that can be attained on longer bans.
The joke that was the system, where a one year ban meant six months and two years meant 12 months. In a country with as many road deaths as ours, this leniency was long overdue for tackling.
The joke that was the system, where a one year ban meant six months and two years meant 12 months. In a country with as many road deaths as ours, this leniency was long overdue for tackling.
Monday 26 March 2007
No Good News for FF
It is becoming increasingly apparrent that the media (or should i say MEEEJA) are not going to give FF any break in the next few months. It has been clear for some time that the Mail and Times are going to lay into the FF government at every opportunity, but this has spread to most other media outlets and there does appear to be developing a genuine anti FF bias in the media.
Now I have my issues with FF and am not averse to the notion of seeing a change in power, however its getting a bit ridiculous. Neither the Government nor FF suddenly became evil and incompetent overnight, but the media campaign is certainly ramping up in preparation for the election. (Whether you believe the Government was evil and incompetent long before this, I leave to your judgement).
It's up to others to make up their minds as to the extent of the bias, however to me it is becoming decidedly obvious. The official opposition appears to be the fourth estate. FF traditionally whinges about the media hating them, but in this case they may have a point.
Now I have my issues with FF and am not averse to the notion of seeing a change in power, however its getting a bit ridiculous. Neither the Government nor FF suddenly became evil and incompetent overnight, but the media campaign is certainly ramping up in preparation for the election. (Whether you believe the Government was evil and incompetent long before this, I leave to your judgement).
It's up to others to make up their minds as to the extent of the bias, however to me it is becoming decidedly obvious. The official opposition appears to be the fourth estate. FF traditionally whinges about the media hating them, but in this case they may have a point.
Thursday 22 March 2007
Thursday Election an FF Gerrymander
It is the Taoiseachs perogative to call the date of the General Election, however this perogative should be exercised with reference to the demands of a democratic society that people should be given every opportunity to vote. Bertie does not appear to be worried by such niceties, he has an election to win and it is likely that those nasty student types wont be voting FF, but for Greens and other socialist or hippy types. He also does not want to have the people who moved to Dublin to work going home to vote after being stuck in traffic getting out of Dublin on a Friday. Bollix to dat says Bertie.
The Thursday election should by now be an anachronism in Irish politics, we should have moved away from those days. The point should be to allow as many as possible to exercise their franchise and hang the expense of the overtime at the count.
Noise needs to be made about this. It is not a small issue, it is one which is critical. We have to many pious words about needing to increase participation from politicians. When words are matched by these actions it leaves you in no doubt what they feel about young voters.
The Thursday election should by now be an anachronism in Irish politics, we should have moved away from those days. The point should be to allow as many as possible to exercise their franchise and hang the expense of the overtime at the count.
Noise needs to be made about this. It is not a small issue, it is one which is critical. We have to many pious words about needing to increase participation from politicians. When words are matched by these actions it leaves you in no doubt what they feel about young voters.
Wednesday 21 March 2007
Minister McDowell Confirms End of Winter
In what has to be one of the strangest press releases of the year, the Minister for Justice has confirmed the end of winter by announcing that clocks will indeed go forward this weekend. The press release issued this morning brings to an end weeks of speculation that clocks would not enter into a 'going forward' agreement and that each clock would engage in individual bargaining.
It is not clear whether the Tanaiste in announcing the start of summer is actually claiming credit for it. In this country that's a tactic that could fall flat on its arse.
Below is the listed the text of the press release issued by the Minister.
"REMINDER
CLOCKS GO FORWARD WEEKEND OF 24/25 MARCH, 2007The Tánaiste and Minister for Justice, Equality and Law Reform, Mr. Michael McDowell, T.D., would like to remind the general public that "Summer time" will commence at 1.00 a.m. Greenwich Mean Time on Sunday 25 March, 2007. Clocks and watches should be put forward one hour at that time. Summer time will end at 1.00 a.m. Greenwich Mean Time on Sunday 28 October, 2007. 21 March 2007"
Who says he doesnt earn his keep.
It is not clear whether the Tanaiste in announcing the start of summer is actually claiming credit for it. In this country that's a tactic that could fall flat on its arse.
Below is the listed the text of the press release issued by the Minister.
"REMINDER
CLOCKS GO FORWARD WEEKEND OF 24/25 MARCH, 2007The Tánaiste and Minister for Justice, Equality and Law Reform, Mr. Michael McDowell, T.D., would like to remind the general public that "Summer time" will commence at 1.00 a.m. Greenwich Mean Time on Sunday 25 March, 2007. Clocks and watches should be put forward one hour at that time. Summer time will end at 1.00 a.m. Greenwich Mean Time on Sunday 28 October, 2007. 21 March 2007"
Who says he doesnt earn his keep.
Sunday 18 March 2007
Viva El Presidente
Well the Soldiers of Density have gotten round to launching the posters and it comes as zero surprise that they are leading with Bertie. It was always an outside chance that Martin Cullen would be heading up their campaign I suppose.
The slogan is good stuff, Peace Prosperity etc etc and Bertie sitting behind the Taoiseachs desk. The message is very clear, "dont piss it all away - vote FF".
Leading with Bertie has been FFs strategy for so long that its hard to remember how we ever got on without the likeable auld so and so. The Bertiegate affair proved that Bertie is virtually untouchable.
It begins now. The shutting up of Cullen and Roche. From now on its about Bertie, no one else will matter at national level for Fianna Fail. Can Bertie keep persuading us as interest rates rise and jobs go left right and centre, that he's still in control.
Watch this space, El Presidente is warming up for the fight.
The slogan is good stuff, Peace Prosperity etc etc and Bertie sitting behind the Taoiseachs desk. The message is very clear, "dont piss it all away - vote FF".
Leading with Bertie has been FFs strategy for so long that its hard to remember how we ever got on without the likeable auld so and so. The Bertiegate affair proved that Bertie is virtually untouchable.
It begins now. The shutting up of Cullen and Roche. From now on its about Bertie, no one else will matter at national level for Fianna Fail. Can Bertie keep persuading us as interest rates rise and jobs go left right and centre, that he's still in control.
Watch this space, El Presidente is warming up for the fight.
Tuesday 6 March 2007
Chambers Launch Manifesto for Election
Chambers launches Election Manifesto for Growth
Chambers Ireland has today launched its election manifesto “A Manifesto for Business – A Manifesto for Growth” examining the six core themes that the Irish Chamber network believes are necessary requirements for future growth. In addition to calls for the timely delivery of a first rate infrastructure, retaining our low tax environment and unleashing more competition in the energy and public transport sectors, the document makes recommendations to assure Ireland’s continued progress.
Speaking at the launch, Chambers Ireland President David Pierce said “while Ireland has experienced an outstanding period of economic progress, the policies which have facilitated our growth, will not necessarily be the ones to maintain it in the future. Accordingly, we must build on those policies that have delivered so much in recent times, while also preparing for the inevitable adjustments that must come.”
In the context of ensuring a competitive business environment, Chambers Ireland Chief Executive John Dunne said, “the World Bank ranks Ireland 80th in terms of favourable employment regulations, this is bad for business. We call on the next government to commit to only update regulations on two set days per year. In addition, all Health & Safety and Employment legislation should be consolidated into a single act to simplify the administrative burden for companies,” he added.
In reviewing future cost commitments, Dunne stated, “the next Government should commit to publishing a statement of national liabilities—such as pensions—in the National Accounts thereby providing greater clarity on our future responsibilities.” He also called on the government to provide a redundancy option for public servants.
Regarding the ongoing debate over income taxes Dunne said “almost 40pc of the workforce does not pay any income tax at all. We believe that this number is too high and does not ensure that enough taxpayers are sensitised to Government spending. Accordingly, Chambers Ireland believes that the incoming government should ensure that 1/3 of taxpayers pay no income tax, 1/3 pay the standard rate and 1/3 pay the top rate, whatever that rate may be” he added.
Turning to the delivery of an educated flexible workforce, Dunne said “with the expansion of the school curriculum, particularly at primary level, employers are concerned that not enough time is being allocated to the basic requirements of reading, writing and arithmetic. Accordingly, we call on the next Government to lengthen the school day by one hour. This will assist in maintaining standards of education while also covering the expanded ICT and science curriculums,” he noted.
“We must also provide additional tax credits for citizens returning to education while ensuring that our third level system is incentivised to properly support part time learning via provision of the same level of capitation grant for night as for day students,” he concluded.
Chambers Ireland has today launched its election manifesto “A Manifesto for Business – A Manifesto for Growth” examining the six core themes that the Irish Chamber network believes are necessary requirements for future growth. In addition to calls for the timely delivery of a first rate infrastructure, retaining our low tax environment and unleashing more competition in the energy and public transport sectors, the document makes recommendations to assure Ireland’s continued progress.
Speaking at the launch, Chambers Ireland President David Pierce said “while Ireland has experienced an outstanding period of economic progress, the policies which have facilitated our growth, will not necessarily be the ones to maintain it in the future. Accordingly, we must build on those policies that have delivered so much in recent times, while also preparing for the inevitable adjustments that must come.”
In the context of ensuring a competitive business environment, Chambers Ireland Chief Executive John Dunne said, “the World Bank ranks Ireland 80th in terms of favourable employment regulations, this is bad for business. We call on the next government to commit to only update regulations on two set days per year. In addition, all Health & Safety and Employment legislation should be consolidated into a single act to simplify the administrative burden for companies,” he added.
In reviewing future cost commitments, Dunne stated, “the next Government should commit to publishing a statement of national liabilities—such as pensions—in the National Accounts thereby providing greater clarity on our future responsibilities.” He also called on the government to provide a redundancy option for public servants.
Regarding the ongoing debate over income taxes Dunne said “almost 40pc of the workforce does not pay any income tax at all. We believe that this number is too high and does not ensure that enough taxpayers are sensitised to Government spending. Accordingly, Chambers Ireland believes that the incoming government should ensure that 1/3 of taxpayers pay no income tax, 1/3 pay the standard rate and 1/3 pay the top rate, whatever that rate may be” he added.
Turning to the delivery of an educated flexible workforce, Dunne said “with the expansion of the school curriculum, particularly at primary level, employers are concerned that not enough time is being allocated to the basic requirements of reading, writing and arithmetic. Accordingly, we call on the next Government to lengthen the school day by one hour. This will assist in maintaining standards of education while also covering the expanded ICT and science curriculums,” he noted.
“We must also provide additional tax credits for citizens returning to education while ensuring that our third level system is incentivised to properly support part time learning via provision of the same level of capitation grant for night as for day students,” he concluded.
Thursday 1 March 2007
Fahey Slip Up or Not
The rap on the knuckles administered to Frank Fahey by the Public Accounts Committee, regarding his interpretation of the mechanisms funding of marinas on the west coast while Minister may not be as harmful as some might think.
Unless it becomes a part of a trend of mini scandals over the next few weeks, it will soon be forgotten outside of the constituencies where the money was granted. Fahey's laughable performance on Morning Ireland this morning will similarly be forgotten by all but the hacks. However in the constituencies where the projects were delivered, the deed will be remembered and it will not be a negative for FF.
Unless it becomes a part of a trend of mini scandals over the next few weeks, it will soon be forgotten outside of the constituencies where the money was granted. Fahey's laughable performance on Morning Ireland this morning will similarly be forgotten by all but the hacks. However in the constituencies where the projects were delivered, the deed will be remembered and it will not be a negative for FF.
Interest May Rise and Support May Fall
The prospect as indicated in this mornings Irish Independent of a further five rises in interest rates this year may become a feature in the coming election. With a rise due next week, it is highly likely that there will be a further rise pre - election. By May, mortgage holders will be facing further strain in paying the bills.
The reports that Irish financial institutions have begun repossessing houses will have sent a chill up the spine of anyone who remembers Thatcher's UK in the 80s. The Labour posters posing the question 'But Are You Happy?' may well find a few more negative answers. This kind of doom and gloom can spread easily in the pubs and at the watercoolers.
The reports that Irish financial institutions have begun repossessing houses will have sent a chill up the spine of anyone who remembers Thatcher's UK in the 80s. The Labour posters posing the question 'But Are You Happy?' may well find a few more negative answers. This kind of doom and gloom can spread easily in the pubs and at the watercoolers.
Wednesday 28 February 2007
Net Outflow of 35bn - We're Either Minted or The Rats Are Jumpin Ship
The latest round of EU wide statistics have been completed - where would lazy journalists be without Eurobarometer. In the last year Ireland had the third highest rate of investment in overseas countries. We've so much money at this stage, we cant spend it here any more we're sending it all overseas.
A part of the 35bn which left Irish shores was a significant repatriation of funds to the US as a result of a tax amnesty, however, there was still a very significant level of investment by Irish people in projects overseas. This is obviously in part a reflection that the days when an easy killing could be made in the Irish property market is over and now Irish investors are looking to buy houses and appartments elsewhere. It is also a sign of Irish enterprises making significant aquisitions of property and business interest overseas.
The only worry in all of this is it further demonstrates that Ireland is not the investors market it once was and if we are shipping our own cash overseas it is liklely others may do likewise.
A part of the 35bn which left Irish shores was a significant repatriation of funds to the US as a result of a tax amnesty, however, there was still a very significant level of investment by Irish people in projects overseas. This is obviously in part a reflection that the days when an easy killing could be made in the Irish property market is over and now Irish investors are looking to buy houses and appartments elsewhere. It is also a sign of Irish enterprises making significant aquisitions of property and business interest overseas.
The only worry in all of this is it further demonstrates that Ireland is not the investors market it once was and if we are shipping our own cash overseas it is liklely others may do likewise.
Tuesday 27 February 2007
Stardust Campaigner to Run in Dublin
The maths in Dublin North Central just got more complicated with the announcement that Antoinette Keegan, a survivor of the Stardust Tragedy, will seek election in the coming battle. The candidate will be seeking to raise the pressure on the government to launch an enquiry into the tragedy.
Dublin North Central is a four seater and is home to Sean Haughey, Ivor Callely, Finian McGrath and Richard Bruton. With Derek McDowell and Green Bronwen Maher also in the field plus two Sinn Fein candidates, this would already be a tricky constituency to win in. Whether Antoinette Keegan can win is debatable, but she will certainly gain profile for this issue.
Dublin North Central is a four seater and is home to Sean Haughey, Ivor Callely, Finian McGrath and Richard Bruton. With Derek McDowell and Green Bronwen Maher also in the field plus two Sinn Fein candidates, this would already be a tricky constituency to win in. Whether Antoinette Keegan can win is debatable, but she will certainly gain profile for this issue.
Monday 26 February 2007
Competition Authority Miss The Point
The Competition Authority has warned IBEC and in particular its food and drink sub group for saying that there was likely to be a rise in price due to increased costs faced by business. The Competition body appears to be saying that IBEC is attempting to lead prices.
The purpose of the IBEC statement and statements which have been made by a number of other groups such as Chambers and ISME, is that increased costs faced by business, many of which have been levied by government agencies, make our prices higher and our economy uncompetitive. Food price inflation has for a number of years been below the real inflation rate.
If the Competition Authority wants to see a competitive market it would do well to look at the Governments role.
The purpose of the IBEC statement and statements which have been made by a number of other groups such as Chambers and ISME, is that increased costs faced by business, many of which have been levied by government agencies, make our prices higher and our economy uncompetitive. Food price inflation has for a number of years been below the real inflation rate.
If the Competition Authority wants to see a competitive market it would do well to look at the Governments role.
Sunday 25 February 2007
Connolly In talks
Fianna Fails attempts to tempt Hugh Mohan to stand in Cavan Monaghan have run into problems again and Paudge Connolly appears to be keen on offering them a plan B. Cavan Monaghan remains a problem constituency for FF strategists.
There has been some suggestion that FF had nearly landed Mohan, but that he was somewhat spooked by the level of media coverage which surrounded his possible selection. It is not clear that Mohan is ready to do the deal.
If Mohan does not step up to the mark, Connolly might see the FF ticket as his one chance to hold on to his seat. There is a fairly wide spread belief that Connolly is vulnerable, not only from other candidates but also from the lack of endorsement from the respected Hospital Alliance in Monaghan. Connolly was the self selected hospital candidate in 2002 - that ruffled many feathers - and there are definitely those who would like to see him beaten. The Alliance running their own candidate is not beyond the realms of possibility.
To add a little more flavour to the stew, former FF councillor Ray Aughey is now threatening to run. His intention not to win, but to cause as much harm as possible to any parachute candidate that head office would impose.
Ah Monaghan, never a dull moment.
There has been some suggestion that FF had nearly landed Mohan, but that he was somewhat spooked by the level of media coverage which surrounded his possible selection. It is not clear that Mohan is ready to do the deal.
If Mohan does not step up to the mark, Connolly might see the FF ticket as his one chance to hold on to his seat. There is a fairly wide spread belief that Connolly is vulnerable, not only from other candidates but also from the lack of endorsement from the respected Hospital Alliance in Monaghan. Connolly was the self selected hospital candidate in 2002 - that ruffled many feathers - and there are definitely those who would like to see him beaten. The Alliance running their own candidate is not beyond the realms of possibility.
To add a little more flavour to the stew, former FF councillor Ray Aughey is now threatening to run. His intention not to win, but to cause as much harm as possible to any parachute candidate that head office would impose.
Ah Monaghan, never a dull moment.
SBP Poll Results
Well it was always a possibility. After weeks of relatively minor foul ups, the government took a hit in the Red C poll. The only major surprise was the extent of the slide, 4% being fairly substantial, and the fact that the PDs did not suffer a hit as well, indeed the junior partner took a small bounce in the polls, something which may calm down an increasingly erratic Tanaiste.
The poll gives some good news to Fine Gael, although their one per cent gain is not exactly the kind of earth shattering performance that will get the pundits ready to crown Enda as the new king. They have succeeded in arresting their slide in the polls, something that had to happen, but they will need a big bump from their coming Ard Fheis to make people think they are serious challengers.
Pats performance at the Ard Fheis and the tax cut package obviously did the trick and Labours increase in the polls will help to boost the party faithful. At 14% they now have the certainty that they could form a majority govt with FF or otherwise hold real clout and bargaining power in a rainbow coalition.
The big winners in this poll and in this year are the Greens. The Greens may get a bit of a bump from the Ard Fheis, although Trevors performance was the poorest by far of any leader to date. The Greens are now in a position of great strength and judging by the comments of delegates yesterday, they know it. Conservatively they were predicting double figure returns in May. On the strength of these figures that is certainly not beyond the bounds of possibility.
The Shinners, despite getting good coverage via the Assembley elections are not making the breakthrough yet. If they dont keep up with the Greens it is conceivable that a number of their target seats in Dublin will not come off. However there remain gains for the party to take, particularly in the Donegal constituencies. But not all existing seats are safe and the Shinners will face a battle to make sizeable gains.
The Numbers were...
FF: 38% (-4) FG: 22% (+1) LAB: 14% (+2) GP: 8% (+1) SF: 7% (-) Ind (7% (-1) PD: 4% (+1) Coalitions: FF/PD: 42% (-3) FG/LAB: 36% (+3) FG/LAB/GP: 44% (+4)
Now the question that begins to emerge is has Bertie waited too long.
The poll gives some good news to Fine Gael, although their one per cent gain is not exactly the kind of earth shattering performance that will get the pundits ready to crown Enda as the new king. They have succeeded in arresting their slide in the polls, something that had to happen, but they will need a big bump from their coming Ard Fheis to make people think they are serious challengers.
Pats performance at the Ard Fheis and the tax cut package obviously did the trick and Labours increase in the polls will help to boost the party faithful. At 14% they now have the certainty that they could form a majority govt with FF or otherwise hold real clout and bargaining power in a rainbow coalition.
The big winners in this poll and in this year are the Greens. The Greens may get a bit of a bump from the Ard Fheis, although Trevors performance was the poorest by far of any leader to date. The Greens are now in a position of great strength and judging by the comments of delegates yesterday, they know it. Conservatively they were predicting double figure returns in May. On the strength of these figures that is certainly not beyond the bounds of possibility.
The Shinners, despite getting good coverage via the Assembley elections are not making the breakthrough yet. If they dont keep up with the Greens it is conceivable that a number of their target seats in Dublin will not come off. However there remain gains for the party to take, particularly in the Donegal constituencies. But not all existing seats are safe and the Shinners will face a battle to make sizeable gains.
The Numbers were...
FF: 38% (-4) FG: 22% (+1) LAB: 14% (+2) GP: 8% (+1) SF: 7% (-) Ind (7% (-1) PD: 4% (+1) Coalitions: FF/PD: 42% (-3) FG/LAB: 36% (+3) FG/LAB/GP: 44% (+4)
Now the question that begins to emerge is has Bertie waited too long.
Wednesday 14 February 2007
Where is the Opposition????
Messing with the criminal justice system three months before an election, playing politics with the law, abandoning all our rights for the sake of a few cheap headlines. Words cannot express how low an act I feel that An Tanaiste is perpetrating on the Irish people in his latest reaction to gangland crime.
4 years we waited for the Minister to start recruiting the extra Garda he promised and his first step in this was a Garda reserve that as of yet numbers about 100. He promised resources and he didn't deliver. He made claims about criminals being dying wasps on their last sting. Yesterday the same guff was splurted, these new laws marked the end of gangland crime.
Minister McDowell's period in office has been marked by such knee jerk reactions to crime. It is unfortunate that as he prepares to launch the largest single assault on civil liberties in Ireland, by giving additional and unjustifiable powers to a police force desperately in need of institutional reform and proper resourcing, that the opposition has gone AWOL. Where is the voice of reason on the opposition benches to point out that this is political chicanary. Undoubtedly the shinners will scream, but their credentials will do little to help the argument. Who else will stand up and be counted.
Hard cases make bad law, and Minister McDowell was rarely anything but a hard case.
4 years we waited for the Minister to start recruiting the extra Garda he promised and his first step in this was a Garda reserve that as of yet numbers about 100. He promised resources and he didn't deliver. He made claims about criminals being dying wasps on their last sting. Yesterday the same guff was splurted, these new laws marked the end of gangland crime.
Minister McDowell's period in office has been marked by such knee jerk reactions to crime. It is unfortunate that as he prepares to launch the largest single assault on civil liberties in Ireland, by giving additional and unjustifiable powers to a police force desperately in need of institutional reform and proper resourcing, that the opposition has gone AWOL. Where is the voice of reason on the opposition benches to point out that this is political chicanary. Undoubtedly the shinners will scream, but their credentials will do little to help the argument. Who else will stand up and be counted.
Hard cases make bad law, and Minister McDowell was rarely anything but a hard case.
Tuesday 13 February 2007
The Miracle of the Many Faced Bob
Captain Bob McCartney is out to get rid of the Reverend once and for all. After years of animosity and the virtual death of the Ulster Unionists as anything more than a sop to the blue rinse brigade, Bob is out to hit the Doc hard and destroy his chances of becoming first Minister.
In any other country we would laugh at the notion of a candidate running in more than one constituency. Sure it's been done before, but it rarely works. But this is not any other country, this is the crazy world of Northern Irish politics, where Presidential campaigning is the key and where McCartney, although despised by many, is similarly revered by plenty.
UKUP will have other candidates running, but it is to Bob that they will be looking to do real damage. If as the Doc says, the only party who can beat Sinn Fein is the DUP (duh) then any split in the Unionist vote will be a huge blow. With both the UUP and the UKUP out to get him, it might be time for a bit of own medicine for the man who has made a living accusing others of selling out.
In any other country we would laugh at the notion of a candidate running in more than one constituency. Sure it's been done before, but it rarely works. But this is not any other country, this is the crazy world of Northern Irish politics, where Presidential campaigning is the key and where McCartney, although despised by many, is similarly revered by plenty.
UKUP will have other candidates running, but it is to Bob that they will be looking to do real damage. If as the Doc says, the only party who can beat Sinn Fein is the DUP (duh) then any split in the Unionist vote will be a huge blow. With both the UUP and the UKUP out to get him, it might be time for a bit of own medicine for the man who has made a living accusing others of selling out.
McDowell Runs to the Left
It appears that Pat's 18% stunt on Saturday has so completely confused Der Fuhrer, that he is now running full tilt to the left. Morning Ireland this morning had an irate Tanaiste claiming that the PDs when returned to the Reichstag would implement a 3oo euro a week pension. He claimed that in saying this that he was not trying to buy the election. Hmmmmm.
His rant also included the side swipe that while the PDs have form in increasing pensions, (remember those PD Ministers for Social Welfare) that Labour have always opposed tax cuts. Now what this of course means in reality is that the PDs have allowed the FF boys a few hand outs to the pensioners and Labour have always opposed tax cuts to the top rate - such is their want as a left wing(ish) party.
McDowell will calm down soon and hopefully in the meantime he will stay out of the way of microphones and unsuspecting opposition spokes people. In terms of guaging the success of any opposition policy announcement, how crazy Michael goes is a good rule of thumb. In this case he not only went crazy, but started abandoning his right wing credo. This round goes to the smug faced boy wearing the off-red rose.
His rant also included the side swipe that while the PDs have form in increasing pensions, (remember those PD Ministers for Social Welfare) that Labour have always opposed tax cuts. Now what this of course means in reality is that the PDs have allowed the FF boys a few hand outs to the pensioners and Labour have always opposed tax cuts to the top rate - such is their want as a left wing(ish) party.
McDowell will calm down soon and hopefully in the meantime he will stay out of the way of microphones and unsuspecting opposition spokes people. In terms of guaging the success of any opposition policy announcement, how crazy Michael goes is a good rule of thumb. In this case he not only went crazy, but started abandoning his right wing credo. This round goes to the smug faced boy wearing the off-red rose.
Monday 12 February 2007
It's the Little Things
With the economy doing pretty well (no one say Pfizer) if anything screws the government, it will be quality of life issues such as health, education, and transport. Transport is one where with Minister Clueless at the helm, they are seen to have performed particularly badly.
Cullen will be the focus of much debate in the coming months and his performance must rank at the lower end of the spectrum in this government. He is a soft target and further revelations about NRA advice on the port tunnell and the continuing mess that is Dublin's traffic system atest to his failure to get to grips with his brief. His appointment of Tom Mulcahey indicates a complete lack of political responsibility.
Todays Indo has a small piece on commute times by bus. This gives some indication of just how badly Cullen is failing in his brief.
Fortunately for him, they seem to love him down Waterford way.
From the Irish Independent
The survey shows:
* A car will travel from Bray to Foxrock Church 7.34 minutes faster than a bus which takes 27.06 minutes.
*TBallymun to Dorset Street Lower: a bus travels in 20.33 minutes, compared with 20 minutes for a car.
* West of the M50 to Camden Street: a bus takes 41.45 minutes, a car does the trip 2.29 minutes faster.
* Raheny to Fairview: a car takes 25 minutes, a bus 1.32 minutes longer.
Cullen will be the focus of much debate in the coming months and his performance must rank at the lower end of the spectrum in this government. He is a soft target and further revelations about NRA advice on the port tunnell and the continuing mess that is Dublin's traffic system atest to his failure to get to grips with his brief. His appointment of Tom Mulcahey indicates a complete lack of political responsibility.
Todays Indo has a small piece on commute times by bus. This gives some indication of just how badly Cullen is failing in his brief.
Fortunately for him, they seem to love him down Waterford way.
From the Irish Independent
The survey shows:
* A car will travel from Bray to Foxrock Church 7.34 minutes faster than a bus which takes 27.06 minutes.
*TBallymun to Dorset Street Lower: a bus travels in 20.33 minutes, compared with 20 minutes for a car.
* West of the M50 to Camden Street: a bus takes 41.45 minutes, a car does the trip 2.29 minutes faster.
* Raheny to Fairview: a car takes 25 minutes, a bus 1.32 minutes longer.
Rabbitte Pulls Coalition From the Hat
What a difference a day can make. The bold Pat has been a bit jittery of late, struggling to stay on message in the face of repeated questioning on his level of commitment to Inda. After his conference speech on Saturday night, the media focus will surely shift back to the politics and the policy, at least for a few days.
The pledge to cut the bottom rate of tax was a master stroke its brilliance exceeded only by its obviousness. Where the shock value is coming from is beyond me. This is reputedly a left wing party, it must try to outflank FF and the PAYE worker on low to medium money is not a bad place to start. Biffos statement that he would continue cutting tax at the top rate next year helps Rabbittes pledge even more, he is addressing the ordinary Joe while FF is looking after the rich man.
The eagerness with which FG grasped hold of the idea was a bit unseemly and me tooish, but it may just be the first step in turning things back round for the alternative coalition, Rabbitte may indeed have pulled it out of the hat.
The pledge to cut the bottom rate of tax was a master stroke its brilliance exceeded only by its obviousness. Where the shock value is coming from is beyond me. This is reputedly a left wing party, it must try to outflank FF and the PAYE worker on low to medium money is not a bad place to start. Biffos statement that he would continue cutting tax at the top rate next year helps Rabbittes pledge even more, he is addressing the ordinary Joe while FF is looking after the rich man.
The eagerness with which FG grasped hold of the idea was a bit unseemly and me tooish, but it may just be the first step in turning things back round for the alternative coalition, Rabbitte may indeed have pulled it out of the hat.
Tuesday 6 February 2007
FF to Parachute Mohan
FF appear set to parachute Hugh Mohan SC as candidate in the Cavan Monaghan constituency. Party HQ have been trying to persuade the former Bar Council Chair to run for some time and it appears they now have their man. It is thought that in a future FF government, Mohan would be the favourite candidate for Attorney General gig.
Mohan had made it clear that he would not run in his home constituency unless some guarantees were given in relation to Monaghan General Hospital. Many felt that such assurances could not be given by FF given Mary Harneys resolute stance on the future of the Monaghan site.
This move may however cause division in County Monaghan. A number of local candidates had indicated their intention to seek the nomination. Benny Kieran has missed out for the second time in a row, having been removed from the ticket in 2002. Seamus Coyle has also missed out. It was not clear as to whether Robbie Gallagher, the 2002 candidate intended running. These three potential candidates were dotted throughout the Monaghan half of the constituency and it is possible that FF HQ have alienated many volunteers in towns throughout Monaghan.
With Cavan Monaghan a four seater this time, Mohan is a high profile candidate, but not a local resident. It will be interesting to see how his arrival on the scene will be viewed by the electorate.
Mohan had made it clear that he would not run in his home constituency unless some guarantees were given in relation to Monaghan General Hospital. Many felt that such assurances could not be given by FF given Mary Harneys resolute stance on the future of the Monaghan site.
This move may however cause division in County Monaghan. A number of local candidates had indicated their intention to seek the nomination. Benny Kieran has missed out for the second time in a row, having been removed from the ticket in 2002. Seamus Coyle has also missed out. It was not clear as to whether Robbie Gallagher, the 2002 candidate intended running. These three potential candidates were dotted throughout the Monaghan half of the constituency and it is possible that FF HQ have alienated many volunteers in towns throughout Monaghan.
With Cavan Monaghan a four seater this time, Mohan is a high profile candidate, but not a local resident. It will be interesting to see how his arrival on the scene will be viewed by the electorate.
Business Calls for Carbon Tax
Energy being the flavour of the month, with the EPA about to publish a document showing our first emissions rise in four years, Chambers Ireland have published a policy document calling for a shadow Carbon Tax.
The Chambers, the largest business organisation in Ireland, argued that a Carbon Tax was needed to change consumption patterns. However it was argued that business did not trust government to implement the tax and as such wished to see the development of a model which would be revenue neutral and would not destroy the competitiveness of Irish business.
We await the reactions of the Government and the Greens in relation to the EPA report and the Chambers call.
The Chambers, the largest business organisation in Ireland, argued that a Carbon Tax was needed to change consumption patterns. However it was argued that business did not trust government to implement the tax and as such wished to see the development of a model which would be revenue neutral and would not destroy the competitiveness of Irish business.
We await the reactions of the Government and the Greens in relation to the EPA report and the Chambers call.
Monday 5 February 2007
After Bertie?
The biggest loser in the Frank Luntz examination of Irish voters attitudes (Rte's Week in Politics) was Brian Cowan. Only 1/3rd of people questioned in the survey thought that Cowan looked like leadership material. If this was a nasty surprise for Biffo, it will surely come as a bonus to his rivals.
The obvious options are Ministers Hanafin, Ahern and Martin. Each one of these will take great comfort in the fact that Irelands answer to Gordon Brown is no longer looking like such a certainty to land the role.
This will be a crucial decision for Fianna Fail. If you factor the changed political atmosphere in which Bertie has operated, it is possible to claim he has been their most popular leader ever. Without him, they are facing many of the same challenges that Fine Gael have faced. Picking a leader with voter appeal is critical. While Biffo maybe popular with the party, he may not play to well with an increasingly image conscious electorate.
This could open a debate within Fianna Fail and should it do so, it will not be good for Brian Cowan. It could also lead to an interesting split. The timing of this will of course depend on the election. If FF win, then its 18 months away, if they lose then its mid summer madness for the Soldiers of Density.
The obvious options are Ministers Hanafin, Ahern and Martin. Each one of these will take great comfort in the fact that Irelands answer to Gordon Brown is no longer looking like such a certainty to land the role.
This will be a crucial decision for Fianna Fail. If you factor the changed political atmosphere in which Bertie has operated, it is possible to claim he has been their most popular leader ever. Without him, they are facing many of the same challenges that Fine Gael have faced. Picking a leader with voter appeal is critical. While Biffo maybe popular with the party, he may not play to well with an increasingly image conscious electorate.
This could open a debate within Fianna Fail and should it do so, it will not be good for Brian Cowan. It could also lead to an interesting split. The timing of this will of course depend on the election. If FF win, then its 18 months away, if they lose then its mid summer madness for the Soldiers of Density.
Thursday 1 February 2007
Two Trips to the Polls?
The Government or at least Der Fuhrer has announced his intention that the referenda on Childrens rights will be held prior to the General Election. If this turns out to be true, there will be the insane spectacle of millions of pounds being needlessly wasted on a referendum, which while important, could be dove tailed with the election. Common sense says merge the two, either with a May date or that the referendum gets called in March and the Government jumps early and saves the taxpayer a few bob (and avoids any banana skins)
Next item on the agenda is who will apply for the Referendum Commission funding which is available to oppose the rights of the child. Could this be the pay day Jade Goody needs now her career is fecked.
Next item on the agenda is who will apply for the Referendum Commission funding which is available to oppose the rights of the child. Could this be the pay day Jade Goody needs now her career is fecked.
Wednesday 31 January 2007
The Final 25
Whether they make it or not, this is what the government say will come before the Dail before the end of Term. 25 bills covering some huge and some not so huge areas of legislative importance.
The big question is with FF sitting pretty in the polls, will Bertie feel that maybe waiting around much longer isn't in his interests. He's always said Summer and he has gone full term each time, but if he got another bounce from the Peace Process and in the face of a possible Tribunal appearance who would blame him for an early jump.
Anyhoo heres the list.
Arts Sport and Tourism
1
Sports Council (Amendment) Bill
To provide the granting of powers to the Irish Sports Council to establish subsidiary companies. This power is required to give effect to decisions by the Government to establish an Institute of Sport, and to restructure the National Coaching and Training Centre as Coaching Ireland
Communications Marine and Natural Resources
2
Communications Regulation (Amendment) Bill
To provide for the creation of indictable offences for breaches of enforcement measures imposed by the Commission for Communications Regulation, to strengthen ComReg's powers of enforcement and investigation, to provide for regulation of the IEDR and to provide for the establishment of an emergency call answering service
Community Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs
3
Charities Bill
To regulate charities, so as to ensure accountability and to protect against abuse of charitable status and fraud
Defence
4
Curragh of Kildare Bill
To provide for the establishment of a statutory body to manage the Curragh, with the exception of the military establishment at the Defence Forces Training Centre, and to update the existing Curragh of Kildare Acts
Education and Science
5
Student Support Bill
To place all student support schemes on a statutory footing, to designate VECs as awarding authorities, to provide for a system of appeals and penalties for fraudulent applications for grants and to repeal the Local Authorities (Higher Education Grants) Acts 1968 to 1992
Enterprise Trade and Employment
6
Consumer Protection Bill
To establish the new National Consumer Agency, to transpose the Unfair Commercial Practices Directive and to update and modernise the current framework of consumer law
7
Control of Exports Bill
To update Ireland's export control legislation in the area of strategic export controls in line with recommendations of the 2004 Forfás review of Ireland's export controls system
8
Protection of Employment (Exceptional Collective Redundancies) Bill
To address cases of collective redundancies where specific situations apply requiring the establishment of a new body, the Redundancy Panel
Environment Heritage and Local Government
9
Electoral Bill
To address the issues arising from the recent Supreme Court judgement concerning assenting to the nomination of non-party candidates at Dáil elections
Finance
10
Asset Covered Securities (Amendment) Bill
To amend the statutory framework for Ireland's covered bonds regime, as established by the Assets Covered Securities Act 2001, so as to ensure Ireland's competitiveness in the wake of recent international and EU developments in the covered bonds market
11
Ethics Bill
To amend current ethics legislation to require office holders and Oireachtas members to seek the opinion of the Standards in Public Office Commission before accepting a significant gift or loan from a friend, and to abide by that decision
12
Finance Bill
To give statutory effect to Budget Day decisions and to make other changes to tax law
13
Markets in Financial Instruments Bill
To transpose certain provisions of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive which require primary legislation and to make necessary technical amendments to various Acts
Foreign Affairs
14
Passports Bill
To regulate the issuance of passports, to assist in the introduction of biometric Irish passports and to address the need to introduce a series of new offences relating to the fraudulent use of passports
Health and Children
15
Adoption (Hague Convention, Adoption Authority) Bill
To ratify the Hague Convention on the Protection of Children, to provide for the creation of the Adoption Authority as the Central Authority required under the terms of the Convention to oversee the implementation in effecting intercountry adoptions and to deal with miscellaneous issues regarding domestic adoption
16
Pharmacy (No. 1) Bill
To provide for fitness to practice regulations for pharmacists and the removal of the restriction on pharmacists educated in other EU and EEA countries from managing or supervising a pharmacy in Ireland that is less than 3 years old and to deal with a number of issues raised by the Pharmacy Review Group
17
Voluntary Health Insurance Board (Amendment) Bill
To address VHI's corporate status and related matters
Justice Equality and Law Reform
18
Coroners Bill
To provide for reform of the Coroners Service and to replace the Coroners Act of 1962
19
Courts and Court Officers (Amendment) Bill
To provide for an increase in the number of judges of the High Court, Circuit Court and District Court
20
Criminal Justice (Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill
To provide for miscellaneous changes to the criminal law and to give effect to a number of international instruments
21
Immigration and Residence Bill
To update the law on immigration, residence and other matters relating to non-nationals
Social and Family Affairs
22
Social Welfare Law Reform and Pensions Bill
To provide for certain outstanding Budget measures scheduled to take effect during 2007
Taoiseach
23
Statute Law Revision Bill
To remove 3,000 obsolete and redundant primary Acts that predate the foundation of the State from the Irish Statute Book
Transport
24
Dublin Transport Authority Bill
To provide for the establishment of a transport authority to oversee the implementation of Transport 21 in the Greater Dublin Area
25
Roads (Amendment) Bill
To amend legislation relating to roads and the National Roads Authority
The big question is with FF sitting pretty in the polls, will Bertie feel that maybe waiting around much longer isn't in his interests. He's always said Summer and he has gone full term each time, but if he got another bounce from the Peace Process and in the face of a possible Tribunal appearance who would blame him for an early jump.
Anyhoo heres the list.
Arts Sport and Tourism
1
Sports Council (Amendment) Bill
To provide the granting of powers to the Irish Sports Council to establish subsidiary companies. This power is required to give effect to decisions by the Government to establish an Institute of Sport, and to restructure the National Coaching and Training Centre as Coaching Ireland
Communications Marine and Natural Resources
2
Communications Regulation (Amendment) Bill
To provide for the creation of indictable offences for breaches of enforcement measures imposed by the Commission for Communications Regulation, to strengthen ComReg's powers of enforcement and investigation, to provide for regulation of the IEDR and to provide for the establishment of an emergency call answering service
Community Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs
3
Charities Bill
To regulate charities, so as to ensure accountability and to protect against abuse of charitable status and fraud
Defence
4
Curragh of Kildare Bill
To provide for the establishment of a statutory body to manage the Curragh, with the exception of the military establishment at the Defence Forces Training Centre, and to update the existing Curragh of Kildare Acts
Education and Science
5
Student Support Bill
To place all student support schemes on a statutory footing, to designate VECs as awarding authorities, to provide for a system of appeals and penalties for fraudulent applications for grants and to repeal the Local Authorities (Higher Education Grants) Acts 1968 to 1992
Enterprise Trade and Employment
6
Consumer Protection Bill
To establish the new National Consumer Agency, to transpose the Unfair Commercial Practices Directive and to update and modernise the current framework of consumer law
7
Control of Exports Bill
To update Ireland's export control legislation in the area of strategic export controls in line with recommendations of the 2004 Forfás review of Ireland's export controls system
8
Protection of Employment (Exceptional Collective Redundancies) Bill
To address cases of collective redundancies where specific situations apply requiring the establishment of a new body, the Redundancy Panel
Environment Heritage and Local Government
9
Electoral Bill
To address the issues arising from the recent Supreme Court judgement concerning assenting to the nomination of non-party candidates at Dáil elections
Finance
10
Asset Covered Securities (Amendment) Bill
To amend the statutory framework for Ireland's covered bonds regime, as established by the Assets Covered Securities Act 2001, so as to ensure Ireland's competitiveness in the wake of recent international and EU developments in the covered bonds market
11
Ethics Bill
To amend current ethics legislation to require office holders and Oireachtas members to seek the opinion of the Standards in Public Office Commission before accepting a significant gift or loan from a friend, and to abide by that decision
12
Finance Bill
To give statutory effect to Budget Day decisions and to make other changes to tax law
13
Markets in Financial Instruments Bill
To transpose certain provisions of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive which require primary legislation and to make necessary technical amendments to various Acts
Foreign Affairs
14
Passports Bill
To regulate the issuance of passports, to assist in the introduction of biometric Irish passports and to address the need to introduce a series of new offences relating to the fraudulent use of passports
Health and Children
15
Adoption (Hague Convention, Adoption Authority) Bill
To ratify the Hague Convention on the Protection of Children, to provide for the creation of the Adoption Authority as the Central Authority required under the terms of the Convention to oversee the implementation in effecting intercountry adoptions and to deal with miscellaneous issues regarding domestic adoption
16
Pharmacy (No. 1) Bill
To provide for fitness to practice regulations for pharmacists and the removal of the restriction on pharmacists educated in other EU and EEA countries from managing or supervising a pharmacy in Ireland that is less than 3 years old and to deal with a number of issues raised by the Pharmacy Review Group
17
Voluntary Health Insurance Board (Amendment) Bill
To address VHI's corporate status and related matters
Justice Equality and Law Reform
18
Coroners Bill
To provide for reform of the Coroners Service and to replace the Coroners Act of 1962
19
Courts and Court Officers (Amendment) Bill
To provide for an increase in the number of judges of the High Court, Circuit Court and District Court
20
Criminal Justice (Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill
To provide for miscellaneous changes to the criminal law and to give effect to a number of international instruments
21
Immigration and Residence Bill
To update the law on immigration, residence and other matters relating to non-nationals
Social and Family Affairs
22
Social Welfare Law Reform and Pensions Bill
To provide for certain outstanding Budget measures scheduled to take effect during 2007
Taoiseach
23
Statute Law Revision Bill
To remove 3,000 obsolete and redundant primary Acts that predate the foundation of the State from the Irish Statute Book
Transport
24
Dublin Transport Authority Bill
To provide for the establishment of a transport authority to oversee the implementation of Transport 21 in the Greater Dublin Area
25
Roads (Amendment) Bill
To amend legislation relating to roads and the National Roads Authority
A Leak Less Orde In Awry
The PSNI Chief Constable, Hugh Orde, in a leaked memo to senior staff has apparently criticised SF and the SDLP for their attacks on RUC members for covering up loyalist killers. Now leaving aside the fact that 'leaked' is normally a euphamism for 'press release', someone needs to grab Hugh and say NO NO NO.
You can't spin this one as being Sinn Feins fault. You cant accuse nationalists in the SDLP of making up these reports and over reacting. This isn't unfortunate or unlucky in the Malcolm McArthur sense, this is collusion, this is perversion of justice. Blaming those who criticise you is missing the wood for the splinter on the edge of the twig, on the branch on the tree in the bog down in the valley - oh.
You can't spin this one as being Sinn Feins fault. You cant accuse nationalists in the SDLP of making up these reports and over reacting. This isn't unfortunate or unlucky in the Malcolm McArthur sense, this is collusion, this is perversion of justice. Blaming those who criticise you is missing the wood for the splinter on the edge of the twig, on the branch on the tree in the bog down in the valley - oh.
Tuesday 30 January 2007
Not Enough Pencils M'Lud
Not satisfied with making a balls of e voting and the electoral register update, the Department of Environment has now realised that we dont have enough polling booths for the forthcoming elections!?
The decision has been made therefore to remove the franchise from those over 85 and residents of Leitrim.
The decision has been made therefore to remove the franchise from those over 85 and residents of Leitrim.
SBP Poll
More doom and gloom for Inda in this Sundays poll.
FF 42 UP 3
FG 21 DOWN 2
LAB 12 NO CHANGE
SF 7 DOWN 1
GREEN 7 NO CHANGE
PDS 3 DOWN 1
INDS 8 UP 1
FF are now within a few per cent of majority territory, 45% might be enough to secure such a feat, considering they got a 7%+ seat bonus at the last general election.
I'm still finding it hard to believe that something won't come up between now and polling day, but time is rapidly running out. Unless the tribunals land a direct hit on the Teflon one, it looks certain that FF will be back.
The PDs are impossible to guage, they are effectively a collection of independents, so you can never bank on them one way or another. I'm still thinking wipe out and lucky to hold onto three seats.
Labour aren't doing much in the polls, but one way or another if the PDs die on their ass the red (ish) army will be in a position to do business with FF. Thats if FF need a partner of any size.
SF are on 7 and that number will rise. Not only will they get a bump from the recent decision on policing, they are also set to get two months of publicity with the assembly elections in NI.
Greens hold steady and should pick up a few seats here and thar. But if FF keep gaining then it really wont be an issue.
Independents, we'll see what the issues are closer to the day. Not likely to do as well as last time, no matter what the figures say.
FF 42 UP 3
FG 21 DOWN 2
LAB 12 NO CHANGE
SF 7 DOWN 1
GREEN 7 NO CHANGE
PDS 3 DOWN 1
INDS 8 UP 1
FF are now within a few per cent of majority territory, 45% might be enough to secure such a feat, considering they got a 7%+ seat bonus at the last general election.
I'm still finding it hard to believe that something won't come up between now and polling day, but time is rapidly running out. Unless the tribunals land a direct hit on the Teflon one, it looks certain that FF will be back.
The PDs are impossible to guage, they are effectively a collection of independents, so you can never bank on them one way or another. I'm still thinking wipe out and lucky to hold onto three seats.
Labour aren't doing much in the polls, but one way or another if the PDs die on their ass the red (ish) army will be in a position to do business with FF. Thats if FF need a partner of any size.
SF are on 7 and that number will rise. Not only will they get a bump from the recent decision on policing, they are also set to get two months of publicity with the assembly elections in NI.
Greens hold steady and should pick up a few seats here and thar. But if FF keep gaining then it really wont be an issue.
Independents, we'll see what the issues are closer to the day. Not likely to do as well as last time, no matter what the figures say.
Thursday 25 January 2007
Sulky Trevor Needs to Wise Up
I have a slight liking of the Greens. You have to like them a bit, even if you're not mad on their policies. I mean they were formed by a load of hippy types, who disavowed politics such as we know it, they're pretty ramshackle in their organisation and yet they keep going. And in fairness they have managed to shift the agenda, somewhat to the left in many areas. They have even developed a little bit of organisational and political nous.
The country seems ready to have a Green Party in Coalition. We were ready to give them the necessary votes and transfers to make them king makers and then Trevor opens his gob. Young Trevor has given out about not being allowed on the shows like the Late Late and Tubridy Tonight prior to the election. Now this kind of huff has worked in the past with Podge and Rodge, but it's all getting a bit whiny now. Instead of sounding like a leader, he is merely drawing attention to the fact that the National Broadcaster (such as it is) do not take his party seriously.
Surely someone else could have made these comments if they had to be made. Try to leave the leader with just a smidgeon of dignity.
The country seems ready to have a Green Party in Coalition. We were ready to give them the necessary votes and transfers to make them king makers and then Trevor opens his gob. Young Trevor has given out about not being allowed on the shows like the Late Late and Tubridy Tonight prior to the election. Now this kind of huff has worked in the past with Podge and Rodge, but it's all getting a bit whiny now. Instead of sounding like a leader, he is merely drawing attention to the fact that the National Broadcaster (such as it is) do not take his party seriously.
Surely someone else could have made these comments if they had to be made. Try to leave the leader with just a smidgeon of dignity.
Unionists Accuse SF / SDLP of Grandstanding Tactics - No Debate on Collusion
The two main unionist parties in Norn Iron have ruled out any attempts to debate RUC collusion in the murder of Catholics on the grounds that it would lead to Grandstanding by Nationalist parties.
This is of course a similar tactic to that used by Stalin in an attempt to remove critics of the fourth five year plan, (the one that was big into tractors and betamax video machines) by ruling out all debate and ruling in pogroms.
To compound their sins on this one, the DUP are defending the rights of police officers to obstruct the investigation into this matter.
The DUP's Ian Paisley Jnr claims they were within their rights to withhold co-operation because Ms O'Loan was engaged in a "fishing exercise" without any hard evidence of collusion.He has also rejected suggestions that they had moral obligation to co-operate, saying: "At the end of the day, it boils down to what is your legal right."
This is of course akin to saying a murderer being questioned by police has a legal right not to assist the policeman with his investigations, because a. the cop is only fishing for information without the evidence to prove it and b. he is acting within his legal rights.
As stupid positions go, this one really takes the biscuit.
This is of course a similar tactic to that used by Stalin in an attempt to remove critics of the fourth five year plan, (the one that was big into tractors and betamax video machines) by ruling out all debate and ruling in pogroms.
To compound their sins on this one, the DUP are defending the rights of police officers to obstruct the investigation into this matter.
The DUP's Ian Paisley Jnr claims they were within their rights to withhold co-operation because Ms O'Loan was engaged in a "fishing exercise" without any hard evidence of collusion.He has also rejected suggestions that they had moral obligation to co-operate, saying: "At the end of the day, it boils down to what is your legal right."
This is of course akin to saying a murderer being questioned by police has a legal right not to assist the policeman with his investigations, because a. the cop is only fishing for information without the evidence to prove it and b. he is acting within his legal rights.
As stupid positions go, this one really takes the biscuit.
You Are Now Entering Free Londonderry
Derry City Council have failed in their bid to change the city to Derry (dropping the London bit). In a decision which is certain to piss nationalists off from a height, Mr Justice Weatherup ruled that just because the council had changed its title to Derry, this did not mean the name specified back in the 17th century was changed. The council had wanted the government to accept its view that the name of the city is Derry rather than Londonderry.
Londonderry was established in a Royal Charter granted by King James I in 1613. The name has naturally been a source of contention. Such contention is understandable considering that London is internationally recognised as a deeply troubled area, largely populated by 'chavs' (an English variety of the common or garden spide).
Unionists can now shelve plans for they're 'I Cant believe it's not Londonderry' Ad campaign. Derry's County Board are to meet tomorrow night to determine whether the County will use the name on Jerseys in next summers Championship.
Londonderry was established in a Royal Charter granted by King James I in 1613. The name has naturally been a source of contention. Such contention is understandable considering that London is internationally recognised as a deeply troubled area, largely populated by 'chavs' (an English variety of the common or garden spide).
Unionists can now shelve plans for they're 'I Cant believe it's not Londonderry' Ad campaign. Derry's County Board are to meet tomorrow night to determine whether the County will use the name on Jerseys in next summers Championship.
Wednesday 24 January 2007
Paying Over The Odds for the Fourth Green Field
1 Billion plus in the NDP for cross border projects. The DUP grudgingly say thank you, although many of their supporters have collectively said fuck off in various blogs. The logic is of course straightforward, the border is economically a pain in the arse and this money will help remove some of its significance.
Serious money for tourism, cross border energy, science and technology, human capital and my own favourite - The Ulster Canal (woot!!!!). While 1 billion out of the pot is damn all, its certainly more than counties like Donegal are gonna see in the carve up. And its only a tiny fraction of what we'll eventually have to shell out if we ever get the chance to buy the fourth green field back from her maj.
You always end up paying over the odds for agricultural land.
Serious money for tourism, cross border energy, science and technology, human capital and my own favourite - The Ulster Canal (woot!!!!). While 1 billion out of the pot is damn all, its certainly more than counties like Donegal are gonna see in the carve up. And its only a tiny fraction of what we'll eventually have to shell out if we ever get the chance to buy the fourth green field back from her maj.
You always end up paying over the odds for agricultural land.
The NDP explained
Shamelessly stolen from the Indo
All those NDP terms explained
'Removing infrastructure bottlenecks that constrain economic development' - New traffic lights.
'Sustaining high-value employment opportunities to foster an inclusive society' - More branches of McDonald's.
'Strategic development of gateway cities' - Payola for FF builders in Offaly.
'Promotion of balanced regional development' - Bagging a second seat in Mayo.
'Maintenance of a framework of macroeconomic and budgetary stability' - Tax.
'Affordable housing' - Broom cupboard in stab city for €250,000
All those NDP terms explained
'Removing infrastructure bottlenecks that constrain economic development' - New traffic lights.
'Sustaining high-value employment opportunities to foster an inclusive society' - More branches of McDonald's.
'Strategic development of gateway cities' - Payola for FF builders in Offaly.
'Promotion of balanced regional development' - Bagging a second seat in Mayo.
'Maintenance of a framework of macroeconomic and budgetary stability' - Tax.
'Affordable housing' - Broom cupboard in stab city for €250,000
It's Just a Jump to The Left....?
The NDP announced with much Hoo Haa, well more hoo than haa if truth be told. The Fuhrer describes the current government as leaving all others in the shade, Bertie points out that this NDP is all about Social Inclusion. Yes Ladies and Gentlemen, this one's for the Children.
Totalling 180bn, this is a plan which contains virtually nothing. Look through it and there is nothing committed to. Specific projects when they are mentioned aren't costed, headings that are costed do not include specific proposals. It's a bit like going on the piss and spending a large wad of cash and not quite remembering what you spent it on.
God be with the days when Albert could buy an election for 8bn punt. Our expectations have risen so high that we now expect to spend 180bn and get nothing in return. Gotta love new socialist Bertie.
Totalling 180bn, this is a plan which contains virtually nothing. Look through it and there is nothing committed to. Specific projects when they are mentioned aren't costed, headings that are costed do not include specific proposals. It's a bit like going on the piss and spending a large wad of cash and not quite remembering what you spent it on.
God be with the days when Albert could buy an election for 8bn punt. Our expectations have risen so high that we now expect to spend 180bn and get nothing in return. Gotta love new socialist Bertie.
....And Then A Step to The Right
Enda Kenny argues that you can't argue with aspirations, then he declares Ireland is a Celtic and Christian Country - and leaves you to decide yourself whether it should be for a Celtic and Christian people. With no Ivor Callely to disrupt the governments media bandwagon as he did on budget day, Enda took a firm step to the right and brought immigration centre stage, or at least he tried to.
He may well be right up to a point. There really hasn't been much of a debate on this, but whether in the middle of an election campaign is the right time to do it, is another matter. Using immigration as a political football is not in anyones interests. Certainly d'ordinary people of Ireland, not just IBEC and the Equality Authority, should have the right to have their concerns heard - but in an election campaign, slogans as opposed to reasoned argument tend to hold sway.
Prior to the last election, all major parties signed up to a code of practice promising not to have a swipe at minorities. Methinks someone needs to dust that down again and remind Inda that although he may be right about the need for debate, now is not the time.
He may well be right up to a point. There really hasn't been much of a debate on this, but whether in the middle of an election campaign is the right time to do it, is another matter. Using immigration as a political football is not in anyones interests. Certainly d'ordinary people of Ireland, not just IBEC and the Equality Authority, should have the right to have their concerns heard - but in an election campaign, slogans as opposed to reasoned argument tend to hold sway.
Prior to the last election, all major parties signed up to a code of practice promising not to have a swipe at minorities. Methinks someone needs to dust that down again and remind Inda that although he may be right about the need for debate, now is not the time.
Monday 22 January 2007
RUC In Collusion Shocker
So we get an announcement or a leak of kinds that the RUC were actually involved in collusion in a number of murders. Even to a light green republican (thats a D6 republican) this aint exactly news. But what does come as interesting is the timing of the announcement.
Why should this appear in the papers now. Surely no one is trying to play silly buggers with the minds of SF members who are deciding whether they want to join the polis.
Selective leaking and strangely timed allegations, it must be the peace process on the move again.
Why should this appear in the papers now. Surely no one is trying to play silly buggers with the minds of SF members who are deciding whether they want to join the polis.
Selective leaking and strangely timed allegations, it must be the peace process on the move again.
The Letters Page
A couple of gems in the letters page of the Irish Times today. One a rant by the surgical staff in Beaumont Hospital regarding the abuse they are getting from all sides and the terrible conditions in which they work. Fair enough arguments all round. Unfortunately the Irish Health System appears to be structured in a manner best suited to facilitate the game of pass the buck. Comhairle na hOispideal, RCSI, HSE and the Minister all completely blameless. But that is the way it has been for some time.
The other letter which caught my eye was from a prospective candidate in the General. He was opining the fact that the Rabbitte coalition saga is detracting attention from the issues. Of course he is assuming anyone is going to care about the issues. Or even that anybody other than Primetime and the Newspapers are going to argue them anyway. Its gonna take more than Pat Rabbitte to get people focussed on issues other than their SSIA bonus or their cupla quid extra thanks to the budget.
Ireland doesn't do issues.
The other letter which caught my eye was from a prospective candidate in the General. He was opining the fact that the Rabbitte coalition saga is detracting attention from the issues. Of course he is assuming anyone is going to care about the issues. Or even that anybody other than Primetime and the Newspapers are going to argue them anyway. Its gonna take more than Pat Rabbitte to get people focussed on issues other than their SSIA bonus or their cupla quid extra thanks to the budget.
Ireland doesn't do issues.
Thursday 11 January 2007
More Looney
Another sample of the Official Monster Raving Looney Manifesto
Defence
All WMD’s (weapons of Mass Distraction) will be made highly visible so that we can find them.
Any politician wanting to start a war will be shipped off to the country in question with a bag of conkers. They can then conker the country themselves.
The white cliffs of Dover will be painted blue to camouflage our islands.
Buckingham Place will be defended by triffids, cultivated by Prince Charles.
Anyone criticising defence will be made to mend it with de hammer and de nails. (Think this one might have been written by Bertie).
Defence
All WMD’s (weapons of Mass Distraction) will be made highly visible so that we can find them.
Any politician wanting to start a war will be shipped off to the country in question with a bag of conkers. They can then conker the country themselves.
The white cliffs of Dover will be painted blue to camouflage our islands.
Buckingham Place will be defended by triffids, cultivated by Prince Charles.
Anyone criticising defence will be made to mend it with de hammer and de nails. (Think this one might have been written by Bertie).
9 Million Reasons to Love Your Boss
You got to love IBEC and ICTU. Like itchy and scratchy, they fight and fight so much and create an atmosphere of mutual hatred so much that people are convinced that workers and employers dont love each other.
In order to rectify this terrible state of affairs the government is committing 9million euro to a fund for improving employee - employer relations. Well extensive research on the net shows that Four Seasons Firearms in the good ole' US of A, will sell you a Smith and Wesson Texas Hold em set. Cards Chips and a handgun. That strikes me as the ultimate in labour relations, winner takes all. The set only costs 700 dollars, so with the Government grant of 9 million every company in the state should be supplied with one, with enough left over for a slap lunch for the IBEC and ICTU head honchos.
In order to rectify this terrible state of affairs the government is committing 9million euro to a fund for improving employee - employer relations. Well extensive research on the net shows that Four Seasons Firearms in the good ole' US of A, will sell you a Smith and Wesson Texas Hold em set. Cards Chips and a handgun. That strikes me as the ultimate in labour relations, winner takes all. The set only costs 700 dollars, so with the Government grant of 9 million every company in the state should be supplied with one, with enough left over for a slap lunch for the IBEC and ICTU head honchos.
Tuesday 9 January 2007
Monster Monster Manifesto
As I was hawking through some Manifesto sites recently (as one does) I came across this wee gem. It's an awful shame we don't have a party which compares with the UKs Monster Raving Looney party. I know that people say we don't need one, because all of the parties are taking the piss, but some of the measures in the looney manifesto are just great.
I'll fire up bits from time to time when I cant think of anything more useful to contribute. Todays lessons are in Economics and Environment
Economics
Overview Our team of experts has decided that Income Tax has not proved popular with the public and will therefore be abolished. It was started in order to finance the Napoleonic war in 1799 and we now believe that the time is right to announce the cessation of hostilities with Napoleon. Some of the money left in the coffers will be used to fill in our part of the Channel Tunnel in case no one has mentioned it to the French. Any remaining money will be strategically placed on a horse at the 3-30 at Haydock Park at odds of at least 12/1 in order to see us through until the next election. Income Tax will be officially replaced by people lending the government a bob or two at the end of the week when we’re a bit skint.
Other policies: We will issue a 99p coin to save on change.
The Official Monster Raving Loony Party will not join the single European currency. We will invite all Europeans countries to JOIN THE POUND.
Rich people should be taxed to pay for the printing of money, as they use most of it.
Tax credits will be paid to nice people. There will be a “total bastard” tax for everyone else.
Education
Overview We pledge to reduce class sizes by making the pupils sit closer to one another and issuing them with smaller desks. Any MP whose constituency sells off a school playing field for development will be required to relinquish their own back garden as a replacement sports facility for the school. All future Deputy Prime Ministers will be required to be fluent in at least one language to encourage the education system.
Other policies:
In the interests of fair education policy, under a loony government all children will automatically be given full marks in their exams.
Bright pupils will be provided with dimmer switches to prevent them distracting the rest of the class.
SAT’s tests will be abolished and replaced by Gordon Ramsey style cookery lessons and Rolf Harris art classes.
All children will be given two birthdays like the Queen.
Any child who is cleverer than their teacher will be allowed to take over the class and the teacher will stand at the back with a dunce’s hat on. He or she will then be on half pay until he or she has learnt enough to regain the upper ground. This is our policy for child empowerment.
The number 13 will be abolished due to its longstanding unpopularity. The bus to Acton North will now not have a number on it but not much else will be affected. Therefore if you see a bus with no number on it, it will be going to Acton North. Please remember this for future reference.
Policies for students:
Eton and Oxford will be relocated to Blackpool and Bognor Regis leaving the other Universities with a chance of a bigger intake.
All students will be awarded The Louis Pasteur degree for the scientific research into the growth of mould.
We intend to make free university tuition available to all students named Grant. Any student who says the word “Like” when not grammatically called for, as in, “Hey, I’m .. Like, going down the… like, pub”, or, “I was, like, don’t do that” will be made to go and stay with George Bush for a week in order to discourage them from other stupid ‘Americanisms’
I'll fire up bits from time to time when I cant think of anything more useful to contribute. Todays lessons are in Economics and Environment
Economics
Overview Our team of experts has decided that Income Tax has not proved popular with the public and will therefore be abolished. It was started in order to finance the Napoleonic war in 1799 and we now believe that the time is right to announce the cessation of hostilities with Napoleon. Some of the money left in the coffers will be used to fill in our part of the Channel Tunnel in case no one has mentioned it to the French. Any remaining money will be strategically placed on a horse at the 3-30 at Haydock Park at odds of at least 12/1 in order to see us through until the next election. Income Tax will be officially replaced by people lending the government a bob or two at the end of the week when we’re a bit skint.
Other policies: We will issue a 99p coin to save on change.
The Official Monster Raving Loony Party will not join the single European currency. We will invite all Europeans countries to JOIN THE POUND.
Rich people should be taxed to pay for the printing of money, as they use most of it.
Tax credits will be paid to nice people. There will be a “total bastard” tax for everyone else.
Education
Overview We pledge to reduce class sizes by making the pupils sit closer to one another and issuing them with smaller desks. Any MP whose constituency sells off a school playing field for development will be required to relinquish their own back garden as a replacement sports facility for the school. All future Deputy Prime Ministers will be required to be fluent in at least one language to encourage the education system.
Other policies:
In the interests of fair education policy, under a loony government all children will automatically be given full marks in their exams.
Bright pupils will be provided with dimmer switches to prevent them distracting the rest of the class.
SAT’s tests will be abolished and replaced by Gordon Ramsey style cookery lessons and Rolf Harris art classes.
All children will be given two birthdays like the Queen.
Any child who is cleverer than their teacher will be allowed to take over the class and the teacher will stand at the back with a dunce’s hat on. He or she will then be on half pay until he or she has learnt enough to regain the upper ground. This is our policy for child empowerment.
The number 13 will be abolished due to its longstanding unpopularity. The bus to Acton North will now not have a number on it but not much else will be affected. Therefore if you see a bus with no number on it, it will be going to Acton North. Please remember this for future reference.
Policies for students:
Eton and Oxford will be relocated to Blackpool and Bognor Regis leaving the other Universities with a chance of a bigger intake.
All students will be awarded The Louis Pasteur degree for the scientific research into the growth of mould.
We intend to make free university tuition available to all students named Grant. Any student who says the word “Like” when not grammatically called for, as in, “Hey, I’m .. Like, going down the… like, pub”, or, “I was, like, don’t do that” will be made to go and stay with George Bush for a week in order to discourage them from other stupid ‘Americanisms’
Monday 8 January 2007
Hanafin Keeps a Straight Face While Describing Public Sector as Efficient
The big news of the weekend was the announcement that the OECD are going to be allowed to get their teeth into the Irish Public Service, with a major study being announced by An T T Taoiseach.
The timing of this is perfect for FF, any adverse publicity pre - election can be referred to the report which the Government have set up. Should FF get back in, they will have a mandate to make changes, should they fail to get back in they will conveniently forget that they commissioned this report and rubbish it whenever those nasty Fine Gaelers try to attack our poor hard working civil servants.
The laugh of the day had to be this mornings Morning Ireland interview, when she claimed that most Irish people would be very happy with the level of public service provision in Ireland. I think it's fair to say even she struggled to keep a straight face saying it, but thats the beauty of radio, we'll never know.
The timing of this is perfect for FF, any adverse publicity pre - election can be referred to the report which the Government have set up. Should FF get back in, they will have a mandate to make changes, should they fail to get back in they will conveniently forget that they commissioned this report and rubbish it whenever those nasty Fine Gaelers try to attack our poor hard working civil servants.
The laugh of the day had to be this mornings Morning Ireland interview, when she claimed that most Irish people would be very happy with the level of public service provision in Ireland. I think it's fair to say even she struggled to keep a straight face saying it, but thats the beauty of radio, we'll never know.
Waterford 1 - 0 Mayo
It really looks like it will be a US style election. Not only do we have negative campaigning, but now it appears that party discipline has been fired out the window as well. John Deasys comments regarding the future tenure of party leader Enda Kenny really shouldn't surprise us all that much. He comes from argumentative stock that Deasy boy. If his daddy wasn't trying a vote of no confidence in his leader, then it was considered a bad year. What really must be seen as depressing for FGers (yes both of them) is the amateur hour manner in which the crisis has been handled. First Damien English allows himself to be used by the media as a second stalking horse. Then Enda issues his response which merely serves to stoke up the controversy further.About the only good thing, and it may prove to be a very good thing, is getting these fiascos out of the way early in the campaign. This would have been a complete disaster had it happened in April, as it is, it'll blow over fairly quickly. It does leave a fairly stark choice for voters in Waterford though, because unless Cullen gets re elected in a FF Govt, one of our largest cities will be sans Minister. Deasy's political rehabilitation, such as it was, ended last week in yet another puff of smoke.
Wednesday 3 January 2007
And So It Begins
Runners and riders are now well and truly under orders as the unofficial election campaign gets started.
Fine Gael look set to have taken the campaign down a notch with their attack on Michael McDowell. It doesn't appear as if much sympathy will flow in the direction of the PD fuhrer, however many may mourn the introduction of American style campaigning into the Irish political landscape. Who knows though it could be fun.
Bertie sitting looking into the camera, choking back a tear and saying, I'm An T T Taoiseach and I approve dis message. Pan back to a slick ad which turns Inda from a simple Mayo boy into a mass murderer.
In a system where there are few ideological differences, it becomes about personality, when there is little personality it becomes about altering perception of personality, when all else fails, just hurl a load of shit and hope that some of it will stick.
Fine Gael have gone back to the drawing board following the revelation that Bertie is indeed untouchable and have decided to target the PD's. But what can that achieve. Target the PD seats and try and make FF TDs guilty by association. If it is an actual strategy, then I hope that it's not one that they are paying the Yankees big bucks for.
Anyway the race is on. And just so we can look back on it in a few months time, here are the prices with Boyle Sports on who will form the next Government.
Fianna Fail & Progressive Democrats
11/10
Fianna Fail & Labour
9/4
Fine Gael / Labour & Green's
3/1
Fine Gael & Labour
10/1
Fianna Fail On Their Own
12/1
Fianna Fail & Greens
14/1
Fianna Fail & Sinn Fein
16/1
Fine Gael / Labour & Progressive Democrats
33/1
Fine Gael look set to have taken the campaign down a notch with their attack on Michael McDowell. It doesn't appear as if much sympathy will flow in the direction of the PD fuhrer, however many may mourn the introduction of American style campaigning into the Irish political landscape. Who knows though it could be fun.
Bertie sitting looking into the camera, choking back a tear and saying, I'm An T T Taoiseach and I approve dis message. Pan back to a slick ad which turns Inda from a simple Mayo boy into a mass murderer.
In a system where there are few ideological differences, it becomes about personality, when there is little personality it becomes about altering perception of personality, when all else fails, just hurl a load of shit and hope that some of it will stick.
Fine Gael have gone back to the drawing board following the revelation that Bertie is indeed untouchable and have decided to target the PD's. But what can that achieve. Target the PD seats and try and make FF TDs guilty by association. If it is an actual strategy, then I hope that it's not one that they are paying the Yankees big bucks for.
Anyway the race is on. And just so we can look back on it in a few months time, here are the prices with Boyle Sports on who will form the next Government.
Fianna Fail & Progressive Democrats
11/10
Fianna Fail & Labour
9/4
Fine Gael / Labour & Green's
3/1
Fine Gael & Labour
10/1
Fianna Fail On Their Own
12/1
Fianna Fail & Greens
14/1
Fianna Fail & Sinn Fein
16/1
Fine Gael / Labour & Progressive Democrats
33/1
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