After Bertie?

The biggest loser in the Frank Luntz examination of Irish voters attitudes (Rte's Week in Politics) was Brian Cowan. Only 1/3rd of people questioned in the survey thought that Cowan looked like leadership material. If this was a nasty surprise for Biffo, it will surely come as a bonus to his rivals.

The obvious options are Ministers Hanafin, Ahern and Martin. Each one of these will take great comfort in the fact that Irelands answer to Gordon Brown is no longer looking like such a certainty to land the role.

This will be a crucial decision for Fianna Fail. If you factor the changed political atmosphere in which Bertie has operated, it is possible to claim he has been their most popular leader ever. Without him, they are facing many of the same challenges that Fine Gael have faced. Picking a leader with voter appeal is critical. While Biffo maybe popular with the party, he may not play to well with an increasingly image conscious electorate.

This could open a debate within Fianna Fail and should it do so, it will not be good for Brian Cowan. It could also lead to an interesting split. The timing of this will of course depend on the election. If FF win, then its 18 months away, if they lose then its mid summer madness for the Soldiers of Density.