New Candidates in Cavan Monaghan - Martin Turns Green

Jaundiced Ireland has heard that Cllr. Vincent P Martin has been approached by and has agreed to join the Green Party in advance of the forthcoming general election. Martin has been an outspoken member of Monaghan County Council, particularly on planning issues. He was an unsuccesful candidate in the 2002 General Election, but took a council seat in 2004. He has built a high profile in the County and is in a strong position to challenge for votes in South Monaghan. This will be a cause of concern to the newly chosen FF candidate Margaret Conlon.

Also doing the rounds in the rumour mill is the possibility that either Sean McCague (ex GAA president) or Dr Ilona Duffy may be persuaded to run as candidates for the Monaghan Hospital Alliance. Such a move would be likely to finish off any possibility of Paudge Connolly retaining his seat.

Should both of these candidates run, it will once again ensure that the Monaghan side of the constituency becomes a veritable bloodbath.

Another recount anybody.

SBP Poll Results

Well it was always a possibility. After weeks of relatively minor foul ups, the government took a hit in the Red C poll. The only major surprise was the extent of the slide, 4% being fairly substantial, and the fact that the PDs did not suffer a hit as well, indeed the junior partner took a small bounce in the polls, something which may calm down an increasingly erratic Tanaiste.

The poll gives some good news to Fine Gael, although their one per cent gain is not exactly the kind of earth shattering performance that will get the pundits ready to crown Enda as the new king. They have succeeded in arresting their slide in the polls, something that had to happen, but they will need a big bump from their coming Ard Fheis to make people think they are serious challengers.

Pats performance at the Ard Fheis and the tax cut package obviously did the trick and Labours increase in the polls will help to boost the party faithful. At 14% they now have the certainty that they could form a majority govt with FF or otherwise hold real clout and bargaining power in a rainbow coalition.

The big winners in this poll and in this year are the Greens. The Greens may get a bit of a bump from the Ard Fheis, although Trevors performance was the poorest by far of any leader to date. The Greens are now in a position of great strength and judging by the comments of delegates yesterday, they know it. Conservatively they were predicting double figure returns in May. On the strength of these figures that is certainly not beyond the bounds of possibility.

The Shinners, despite getting good coverage via the Assembley elections are not making the breakthrough yet. If they dont keep up with the Greens it is conceivable that a number of their target seats in Dublin will not come off. However there remain gains for the party to take, particularly in the Donegal constituencies. But not all existing seats are safe and the Shinners will face a battle to make sizeable gains.

The Numbers were...

FF: 38% (-4) FG: 22% (+1) LAB: 14% (+2) GP: 8% (+1) SF: 7% (-) Ind (7% (-1) PD: 4% (+1) Coalitions: FF/PD: 42% (-3) FG/LAB: 36% (+3) FG/LAB/GP: 44% (+4)

Now the question that begins to emerge is has Bertie waited too long.

Rabbitte Pulls Coalition From the Hat

What a difference a day can make. The bold Pat has been a bit jittery of late, struggling to stay on message in the face of repeated questioning on his level of commitment to Inda. After his conference speech on Saturday night, the media focus will surely shift back to the politics and the policy, at least for a few days.

The pledge to cut the bottom rate of tax was a master stroke its brilliance exceeded only by its obviousness. Where the shock value is coming from is beyond me. This is reputedly a left wing party, it must try to outflank FF and the PAYE worker on low to medium money is not a bad place to start. Biffos statement that he would continue cutting tax at the top rate next year helps Rabbittes pledge even more, he is addressing the ordinary Joe while FF is looking after the rich man.

The eagerness with which FG grasped hold of the idea was a bit unseemly and me tooish, but it may just be the first step in turning things back round for the alternative coalition, Rabbitte may indeed have pulled it out of the hat.

Business Calls for Carbon Tax

Energy being the flavour of the month, with the EPA about to publish a document showing our first emissions rise in four years, Chambers Ireland have published a policy document calling for a shadow Carbon Tax.

The Chambers, the largest business organisation in Ireland, argued that a Carbon Tax was needed to change consumption patterns. However it was argued that business did not trust government to implement the tax and as such wished to see the development of a model which would be revenue neutral and would not destroy the competitiveness of Irish business.

We await the reactions of the Government and the Greens in relation to the EPA report and the Chambers call.

Sulky Trevor Needs to Wise Up

I have a slight liking of the Greens. You have to like them a bit, even if you're not mad on their policies. I mean they were formed by a load of hippy types, who disavowed politics such as we know it, they're pretty ramshackle in their organisation and yet they keep going. And in fairness they have managed to shift the agenda, somewhat to the left in many areas. They have even developed a little bit of organisational and political nous.

The country seems ready to have a Green Party in Coalition. We were ready to give them the necessary votes and transfers to make them king makers and then Trevor opens his gob. Young Trevor has given out about not being allowed on the shows like the Late Late and Tubridy Tonight prior to the election. Now this kind of huff has worked in the past with Podge and Rodge, but it's all getting a bit whiny now. Instead of sounding like a leader, he is merely drawing attention to the fact that the National Broadcaster (such as it is) do not take his party seriously.

Surely someone else could have made these comments if they had to be made. Try to leave the leader with just a smidgeon of dignity.