Beware the Ides of March Bertie. Well the daggers were out in the Senate yesterday for An Taoiseach. Senator Margaret Cox threatened a vote on the Finance Bill and were it not for some quick procedural footwork by FF members, she would have got it. This is an act of open warfare from the Galway Senator on her own party and one which has shocked many.
Its not clear what Cox's motives were on this. She argues that she doesn't feel Galway is getting a fair deal. Perhaps she is preparing a solo run. If so it is likely to be ill fated. Perhaps she is trying to raise her profile pre Seanad election, if so this is equally a crazy idea, considering who will be voting for her. Perhaps the only other explanation is the strangest of all, a genuine outbreak of principles on the floor of the House.
Liam Fitzgeralds attack was more straightforward and much more easy to explain, he was shafted by FF and he's gonna shaft them right back. Given the level of discord in Dublin North East and the amount of people who are supposed to have resigned or made their discontent known within the constituency organisation, this could spell trouble for the Soldiers of Destiny.
All in all, a bad day for Bertie in the Senate.
Showing posts with label FF. Show all posts
Showing posts with label FF. Show all posts
Thursday 29 March 2007
Monday 26 March 2007
No Good News for FF
It is becoming increasingly apparrent that the media (or should i say MEEEJA) are not going to give FF any break in the next few months. It has been clear for some time that the Mail and Times are going to lay into the FF government at every opportunity, but this has spread to most other media outlets and there does appear to be developing a genuine anti FF bias in the media.
Now I have my issues with FF and am not averse to the notion of seeing a change in power, however its getting a bit ridiculous. Neither the Government nor FF suddenly became evil and incompetent overnight, but the media campaign is certainly ramping up in preparation for the election. (Whether you believe the Government was evil and incompetent long before this, I leave to your judgement).
It's up to others to make up their minds as to the extent of the bias, however to me it is becoming decidedly obvious. The official opposition appears to be the fourth estate. FF traditionally whinges about the media hating them, but in this case they may have a point.
Now I have my issues with FF and am not averse to the notion of seeing a change in power, however its getting a bit ridiculous. Neither the Government nor FF suddenly became evil and incompetent overnight, but the media campaign is certainly ramping up in preparation for the election. (Whether you believe the Government was evil and incompetent long before this, I leave to your judgement).
It's up to others to make up their minds as to the extent of the bias, however to me it is becoming decidedly obvious. The official opposition appears to be the fourth estate. FF traditionally whinges about the media hating them, but in this case they may have a point.
Thursday 22 March 2007
Thursday Election an FF Gerrymander
It is the Taoiseachs perogative to call the date of the General Election, however this perogative should be exercised with reference to the demands of a democratic society that people should be given every opportunity to vote. Bertie does not appear to be worried by such niceties, he has an election to win and it is likely that those nasty student types wont be voting FF, but for Greens and other socialist or hippy types. He also does not want to have the people who moved to Dublin to work going home to vote after being stuck in traffic getting out of Dublin on a Friday. Bollix to dat says Bertie.
The Thursday election should by now be an anachronism in Irish politics, we should have moved away from those days. The point should be to allow as many as possible to exercise their franchise and hang the expense of the overtime at the count.
Noise needs to be made about this. It is not a small issue, it is one which is critical. We have to many pious words about needing to increase participation from politicians. When words are matched by these actions it leaves you in no doubt what they feel about young voters.
The Thursday election should by now be an anachronism in Irish politics, we should have moved away from those days. The point should be to allow as many as possible to exercise their franchise and hang the expense of the overtime at the count.
Noise needs to be made about this. It is not a small issue, it is one which is critical. We have to many pious words about needing to increase participation from politicians. When words are matched by these actions it leaves you in no doubt what they feel about young voters.
Thursday 1 March 2007
Fahey Slip Up or Not
The rap on the knuckles administered to Frank Fahey by the Public Accounts Committee, regarding his interpretation of the mechanisms funding of marinas on the west coast while Minister may not be as harmful as some might think.
Unless it becomes a part of a trend of mini scandals over the next few weeks, it will soon be forgotten outside of the constituencies where the money was granted. Fahey's laughable performance on Morning Ireland this morning will similarly be forgotten by all but the hacks. However in the constituencies where the projects were delivered, the deed will be remembered and it will not be a negative for FF.
Unless it becomes a part of a trend of mini scandals over the next few weeks, it will soon be forgotten outside of the constituencies where the money was granted. Fahey's laughable performance on Morning Ireland this morning will similarly be forgotten by all but the hacks. However in the constituencies where the projects were delivered, the deed will be remembered and it will not be a negative for FF.
Sunday 25 February 2007
Connolly In talks
Fianna Fails attempts to tempt Hugh Mohan to stand in Cavan Monaghan have run into problems again and Paudge Connolly appears to be keen on offering them a plan B. Cavan Monaghan remains a problem constituency for FF strategists.
There has been some suggestion that FF had nearly landed Mohan, but that he was somewhat spooked by the level of media coverage which surrounded his possible selection. It is not clear that Mohan is ready to do the deal.
If Mohan does not step up to the mark, Connolly might see the FF ticket as his one chance to hold on to his seat. There is a fairly wide spread belief that Connolly is vulnerable, not only from other candidates but also from the lack of endorsement from the respected Hospital Alliance in Monaghan. Connolly was the self selected hospital candidate in 2002 - that ruffled many feathers - and there are definitely those who would like to see him beaten. The Alliance running their own candidate is not beyond the realms of possibility.
To add a little more flavour to the stew, former FF councillor Ray Aughey is now threatening to run. His intention not to win, but to cause as much harm as possible to any parachute candidate that head office would impose.
Ah Monaghan, never a dull moment.
There has been some suggestion that FF had nearly landed Mohan, but that he was somewhat spooked by the level of media coverage which surrounded his possible selection. It is not clear that Mohan is ready to do the deal.
If Mohan does not step up to the mark, Connolly might see the FF ticket as his one chance to hold on to his seat. There is a fairly wide spread belief that Connolly is vulnerable, not only from other candidates but also from the lack of endorsement from the respected Hospital Alliance in Monaghan. Connolly was the self selected hospital candidate in 2002 - that ruffled many feathers - and there are definitely those who would like to see him beaten. The Alliance running their own candidate is not beyond the realms of possibility.
To add a little more flavour to the stew, former FF councillor Ray Aughey is now threatening to run. His intention not to win, but to cause as much harm as possible to any parachute candidate that head office would impose.
Ah Monaghan, never a dull moment.
SBP Poll Results
Well it was always a possibility. After weeks of relatively minor foul ups, the government took a hit in the Red C poll. The only major surprise was the extent of the slide, 4% being fairly substantial, and the fact that the PDs did not suffer a hit as well, indeed the junior partner took a small bounce in the polls, something which may calm down an increasingly erratic Tanaiste.
The poll gives some good news to Fine Gael, although their one per cent gain is not exactly the kind of earth shattering performance that will get the pundits ready to crown Enda as the new king. They have succeeded in arresting their slide in the polls, something that had to happen, but they will need a big bump from their coming Ard Fheis to make people think they are serious challengers.
Pats performance at the Ard Fheis and the tax cut package obviously did the trick and Labours increase in the polls will help to boost the party faithful. At 14% they now have the certainty that they could form a majority govt with FF or otherwise hold real clout and bargaining power in a rainbow coalition.
The big winners in this poll and in this year are the Greens. The Greens may get a bit of a bump from the Ard Fheis, although Trevors performance was the poorest by far of any leader to date. The Greens are now in a position of great strength and judging by the comments of delegates yesterday, they know it. Conservatively they were predicting double figure returns in May. On the strength of these figures that is certainly not beyond the bounds of possibility.
The Shinners, despite getting good coverage via the Assembley elections are not making the breakthrough yet. If they dont keep up with the Greens it is conceivable that a number of their target seats in Dublin will not come off. However there remain gains for the party to take, particularly in the Donegal constituencies. But not all existing seats are safe and the Shinners will face a battle to make sizeable gains.
The Numbers were...
FF: 38% (-4) FG: 22% (+1) LAB: 14% (+2) GP: 8% (+1) SF: 7% (-) Ind (7% (-1) PD: 4% (+1) Coalitions: FF/PD: 42% (-3) FG/LAB: 36% (+3) FG/LAB/GP: 44% (+4)
Now the question that begins to emerge is has Bertie waited too long.
The poll gives some good news to Fine Gael, although their one per cent gain is not exactly the kind of earth shattering performance that will get the pundits ready to crown Enda as the new king. They have succeeded in arresting their slide in the polls, something that had to happen, but they will need a big bump from their coming Ard Fheis to make people think they are serious challengers.
Pats performance at the Ard Fheis and the tax cut package obviously did the trick and Labours increase in the polls will help to boost the party faithful. At 14% they now have the certainty that they could form a majority govt with FF or otherwise hold real clout and bargaining power in a rainbow coalition.
The big winners in this poll and in this year are the Greens. The Greens may get a bit of a bump from the Ard Fheis, although Trevors performance was the poorest by far of any leader to date. The Greens are now in a position of great strength and judging by the comments of delegates yesterday, they know it. Conservatively they were predicting double figure returns in May. On the strength of these figures that is certainly not beyond the bounds of possibility.
The Shinners, despite getting good coverage via the Assembley elections are not making the breakthrough yet. If they dont keep up with the Greens it is conceivable that a number of their target seats in Dublin will not come off. However there remain gains for the party to take, particularly in the Donegal constituencies. But not all existing seats are safe and the Shinners will face a battle to make sizeable gains.
The Numbers were...
FF: 38% (-4) FG: 22% (+1) LAB: 14% (+2) GP: 8% (+1) SF: 7% (-) Ind (7% (-1) PD: 4% (+1) Coalitions: FF/PD: 42% (-3) FG/LAB: 36% (+3) FG/LAB/GP: 44% (+4)
Now the question that begins to emerge is has Bertie waited too long.
Monday 12 February 2007
It's the Little Things
With the economy doing pretty well (no one say Pfizer) if anything screws the government, it will be quality of life issues such as health, education, and transport. Transport is one where with Minister Clueless at the helm, they are seen to have performed particularly badly.
Cullen will be the focus of much debate in the coming months and his performance must rank at the lower end of the spectrum in this government. He is a soft target and further revelations about NRA advice on the port tunnell and the continuing mess that is Dublin's traffic system atest to his failure to get to grips with his brief. His appointment of Tom Mulcahey indicates a complete lack of political responsibility.
Todays Indo has a small piece on commute times by bus. This gives some indication of just how badly Cullen is failing in his brief.
Fortunately for him, they seem to love him down Waterford way.
From the Irish Independent
The survey shows:
* A car will travel from Bray to Foxrock Church 7.34 minutes faster than a bus which takes 27.06 minutes.
*TBallymun to Dorset Street Lower: a bus travels in 20.33 minutes, compared with 20 minutes for a car.
* West of the M50 to Camden Street: a bus takes 41.45 minutes, a car does the trip 2.29 minutes faster.
* Raheny to Fairview: a car takes 25 minutes, a bus 1.32 minutes longer.
Cullen will be the focus of much debate in the coming months and his performance must rank at the lower end of the spectrum in this government. He is a soft target and further revelations about NRA advice on the port tunnell and the continuing mess that is Dublin's traffic system atest to his failure to get to grips with his brief. His appointment of Tom Mulcahey indicates a complete lack of political responsibility.
Todays Indo has a small piece on commute times by bus. This gives some indication of just how badly Cullen is failing in his brief.
Fortunately for him, they seem to love him down Waterford way.
From the Irish Independent
The survey shows:
* A car will travel from Bray to Foxrock Church 7.34 minutes faster than a bus which takes 27.06 minutes.
*TBallymun to Dorset Street Lower: a bus travels in 20.33 minutes, compared with 20 minutes for a car.
* West of the M50 to Camden Street: a bus takes 41.45 minutes, a car does the trip 2.29 minutes faster.
* Raheny to Fairview: a car takes 25 minutes, a bus 1.32 minutes longer.
Rabbitte Pulls Coalition From the Hat
What a difference a day can make. The bold Pat has been a bit jittery of late, struggling to stay on message in the face of repeated questioning on his level of commitment to Inda. After his conference speech on Saturday night, the media focus will surely shift back to the politics and the policy, at least for a few days.
The pledge to cut the bottom rate of tax was a master stroke its brilliance exceeded only by its obviousness. Where the shock value is coming from is beyond me. This is reputedly a left wing party, it must try to outflank FF and the PAYE worker on low to medium money is not a bad place to start. Biffos statement that he would continue cutting tax at the top rate next year helps Rabbittes pledge even more, he is addressing the ordinary Joe while FF is looking after the rich man.
The eagerness with which FG grasped hold of the idea was a bit unseemly and me tooish, but it may just be the first step in turning things back round for the alternative coalition, Rabbitte may indeed have pulled it out of the hat.
The pledge to cut the bottom rate of tax was a master stroke its brilliance exceeded only by its obviousness. Where the shock value is coming from is beyond me. This is reputedly a left wing party, it must try to outflank FF and the PAYE worker on low to medium money is not a bad place to start. Biffos statement that he would continue cutting tax at the top rate next year helps Rabbittes pledge even more, he is addressing the ordinary Joe while FF is looking after the rich man.
The eagerness with which FG grasped hold of the idea was a bit unseemly and me tooish, but it may just be the first step in turning things back round for the alternative coalition, Rabbitte may indeed have pulled it out of the hat.
Tuesday 6 February 2007
FF to Parachute Mohan
FF appear set to parachute Hugh Mohan SC as candidate in the Cavan Monaghan constituency. Party HQ have been trying to persuade the former Bar Council Chair to run for some time and it appears they now have their man. It is thought that in a future FF government, Mohan would be the favourite candidate for Attorney General gig.
Mohan had made it clear that he would not run in his home constituency unless some guarantees were given in relation to Monaghan General Hospital. Many felt that such assurances could not be given by FF given Mary Harneys resolute stance on the future of the Monaghan site.
This move may however cause division in County Monaghan. A number of local candidates had indicated their intention to seek the nomination. Benny Kieran has missed out for the second time in a row, having been removed from the ticket in 2002. Seamus Coyle has also missed out. It was not clear as to whether Robbie Gallagher, the 2002 candidate intended running. These three potential candidates were dotted throughout the Monaghan half of the constituency and it is possible that FF HQ have alienated many volunteers in towns throughout Monaghan.
With Cavan Monaghan a four seater this time, Mohan is a high profile candidate, but not a local resident. It will be interesting to see how his arrival on the scene will be viewed by the electorate.
Mohan had made it clear that he would not run in his home constituency unless some guarantees were given in relation to Monaghan General Hospital. Many felt that such assurances could not be given by FF given Mary Harneys resolute stance on the future of the Monaghan site.
This move may however cause division in County Monaghan. A number of local candidates had indicated their intention to seek the nomination. Benny Kieran has missed out for the second time in a row, having been removed from the ticket in 2002. Seamus Coyle has also missed out. It was not clear as to whether Robbie Gallagher, the 2002 candidate intended running. These three potential candidates were dotted throughout the Monaghan half of the constituency and it is possible that FF HQ have alienated many volunteers in towns throughout Monaghan.
With Cavan Monaghan a four seater this time, Mohan is a high profile candidate, but not a local resident. It will be interesting to see how his arrival on the scene will be viewed by the electorate.
Monday 5 February 2007
After Bertie?
The biggest loser in the Frank Luntz examination of Irish voters attitudes (Rte's Week in Politics) was Brian Cowan. Only 1/3rd of people questioned in the survey thought that Cowan looked like leadership material. If this was a nasty surprise for Biffo, it will surely come as a bonus to his rivals.
The obvious options are Ministers Hanafin, Ahern and Martin. Each one of these will take great comfort in the fact that Irelands answer to Gordon Brown is no longer looking like such a certainty to land the role.
This will be a crucial decision for Fianna Fail. If you factor the changed political atmosphere in which Bertie has operated, it is possible to claim he has been their most popular leader ever. Without him, they are facing many of the same challenges that Fine Gael have faced. Picking a leader with voter appeal is critical. While Biffo maybe popular with the party, he may not play to well with an increasingly image conscious electorate.
This could open a debate within Fianna Fail and should it do so, it will not be good for Brian Cowan. It could also lead to an interesting split. The timing of this will of course depend on the election. If FF win, then its 18 months away, if they lose then its mid summer madness for the Soldiers of Density.
The obvious options are Ministers Hanafin, Ahern and Martin. Each one of these will take great comfort in the fact that Irelands answer to Gordon Brown is no longer looking like such a certainty to land the role.
This will be a crucial decision for Fianna Fail. If you factor the changed political atmosphere in which Bertie has operated, it is possible to claim he has been their most popular leader ever. Without him, they are facing many of the same challenges that Fine Gael have faced. Picking a leader with voter appeal is critical. While Biffo maybe popular with the party, he may not play to well with an increasingly image conscious electorate.
This could open a debate within Fianna Fail and should it do so, it will not be good for Brian Cowan. It could also lead to an interesting split. The timing of this will of course depend on the election. If FF win, then its 18 months away, if they lose then its mid summer madness for the Soldiers of Density.
Tuesday 30 January 2007
SBP Poll
More doom and gloom for Inda in this Sundays poll.
FF 42 UP 3
FG 21 DOWN 2
LAB 12 NO CHANGE
SF 7 DOWN 1
GREEN 7 NO CHANGE
PDS 3 DOWN 1
INDS 8 UP 1
FF are now within a few per cent of majority territory, 45% might be enough to secure such a feat, considering they got a 7%+ seat bonus at the last general election.
I'm still finding it hard to believe that something won't come up between now and polling day, but time is rapidly running out. Unless the tribunals land a direct hit on the Teflon one, it looks certain that FF will be back.
The PDs are impossible to guage, they are effectively a collection of independents, so you can never bank on them one way or another. I'm still thinking wipe out and lucky to hold onto three seats.
Labour aren't doing much in the polls, but one way or another if the PDs die on their ass the red (ish) army will be in a position to do business with FF. Thats if FF need a partner of any size.
SF are on 7 and that number will rise. Not only will they get a bump from the recent decision on policing, they are also set to get two months of publicity with the assembly elections in NI.
Greens hold steady and should pick up a few seats here and thar. But if FF keep gaining then it really wont be an issue.
Independents, we'll see what the issues are closer to the day. Not likely to do as well as last time, no matter what the figures say.
FF 42 UP 3
FG 21 DOWN 2
LAB 12 NO CHANGE
SF 7 DOWN 1
GREEN 7 NO CHANGE
PDS 3 DOWN 1
INDS 8 UP 1
FF are now within a few per cent of majority territory, 45% might be enough to secure such a feat, considering they got a 7%+ seat bonus at the last general election.
I'm still finding it hard to believe that something won't come up between now and polling day, but time is rapidly running out. Unless the tribunals land a direct hit on the Teflon one, it looks certain that FF will be back.
The PDs are impossible to guage, they are effectively a collection of independents, so you can never bank on them one way or another. I'm still thinking wipe out and lucky to hold onto three seats.
Labour aren't doing much in the polls, but one way or another if the PDs die on their ass the red (ish) army will be in a position to do business with FF. Thats if FF need a partner of any size.
SF are on 7 and that number will rise. Not only will they get a bump from the recent decision on policing, they are also set to get two months of publicity with the assembly elections in NI.
Greens hold steady and should pick up a few seats here and thar. But if FF keep gaining then it really wont be an issue.
Independents, we'll see what the issues are closer to the day. Not likely to do as well as last time, no matter what the figures say.
Wednesday 24 January 2007
It's Just a Jump to The Left....?
The NDP announced with much Hoo Haa, well more hoo than haa if truth be told. The Fuhrer describes the current government as leaving all others in the shade, Bertie points out that this NDP is all about Social Inclusion. Yes Ladies and Gentlemen, this one's for the Children.
Totalling 180bn, this is a plan which contains virtually nothing. Look through it and there is nothing committed to. Specific projects when they are mentioned aren't costed, headings that are costed do not include specific proposals. It's a bit like going on the piss and spending a large wad of cash and not quite remembering what you spent it on.
God be with the days when Albert could buy an election for 8bn punt. Our expectations have risen so high that we now expect to spend 180bn and get nothing in return. Gotta love new socialist Bertie.
Totalling 180bn, this is a plan which contains virtually nothing. Look through it and there is nothing committed to. Specific projects when they are mentioned aren't costed, headings that are costed do not include specific proposals. It's a bit like going on the piss and spending a large wad of cash and not quite remembering what you spent it on.
God be with the days when Albert could buy an election for 8bn punt. Our expectations have risen so high that we now expect to spend 180bn and get nothing in return. Gotta love new socialist Bertie.
Monday 8 January 2007
Hanafin Keeps a Straight Face While Describing Public Sector as Efficient
The big news of the weekend was the announcement that the OECD are going to be allowed to get their teeth into the Irish Public Service, with a major study being announced by An T T Taoiseach.
The timing of this is perfect for FF, any adverse publicity pre - election can be referred to the report which the Government have set up. Should FF get back in, they will have a mandate to make changes, should they fail to get back in they will conveniently forget that they commissioned this report and rubbish it whenever those nasty Fine Gaelers try to attack our poor hard working civil servants.
The laugh of the day had to be this mornings Morning Ireland interview, when she claimed that most Irish people would be very happy with the level of public service provision in Ireland. I think it's fair to say even she struggled to keep a straight face saying it, but thats the beauty of radio, we'll never know.
The timing of this is perfect for FF, any adverse publicity pre - election can be referred to the report which the Government have set up. Should FF get back in, they will have a mandate to make changes, should they fail to get back in they will conveniently forget that they commissioned this report and rubbish it whenever those nasty Fine Gaelers try to attack our poor hard working civil servants.
The laugh of the day had to be this mornings Morning Ireland interview, when she claimed that most Irish people would be very happy with the level of public service provision in Ireland. I think it's fair to say even she struggled to keep a straight face saying it, but thats the beauty of radio, we'll never know.
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