SBP Poll Results

Well it was always a possibility. After weeks of relatively minor foul ups, the government took a hit in the Red C poll. The only major surprise was the extent of the slide, 4% being fairly substantial, and the fact that the PDs did not suffer a hit as well, indeed the junior partner took a small bounce in the polls, something which may calm down an increasingly erratic Tanaiste.

The poll gives some good news to Fine Gael, although their one per cent gain is not exactly the kind of earth shattering performance that will get the pundits ready to crown Enda as the new king. They have succeeded in arresting their slide in the polls, something that had to happen, but they will need a big bump from their coming Ard Fheis to make people think they are serious challengers.

Pats performance at the Ard Fheis and the tax cut package obviously did the trick and Labours increase in the polls will help to boost the party faithful. At 14% they now have the certainty that they could form a majority govt with FF or otherwise hold real clout and bargaining power in a rainbow coalition.

The big winners in this poll and in this year are the Greens. The Greens may get a bit of a bump from the Ard Fheis, although Trevors performance was the poorest by far of any leader to date. The Greens are now in a position of great strength and judging by the comments of delegates yesterday, they know it. Conservatively they were predicting double figure returns in May. On the strength of these figures that is certainly not beyond the bounds of possibility.

The Shinners, despite getting good coverage via the Assembley elections are not making the breakthrough yet. If they dont keep up with the Greens it is conceivable that a number of their target seats in Dublin will not come off. However there remain gains for the party to take, particularly in the Donegal constituencies. But not all existing seats are safe and the Shinners will face a battle to make sizeable gains.

The Numbers were...

FF: 38% (-4) FG: 22% (+1) LAB: 14% (+2) GP: 8% (+1) SF: 7% (-) Ind (7% (-1) PD: 4% (+1) Coalitions: FF/PD: 42% (-3) FG/LAB: 36% (+3) FG/LAB/GP: 44% (+4)

Now the question that begins to emerge is has Bertie waited too long.

The Miracle of the Many Faced Bob

Captain Bob McCartney is out to get rid of the Reverend once and for all. After years of animosity and the virtual death of the Ulster Unionists as anything more than a sop to the blue rinse brigade, Bob is out to hit the Doc hard and destroy his chances of becoming first Minister.

In any other country we would laugh at the notion of a candidate running in more than one constituency. Sure it's been done before, but it rarely works. But this is not any other country, this is the crazy world of Northern Irish politics, where Presidential campaigning is the key and where McCartney, although despised by many, is similarly revered by plenty.

UKUP will have other candidates running, but it is to Bob that they will be looking to do real damage. If as the Doc says, the only party who can beat Sinn Fein is the DUP (duh) then any split in the Unionist vote will be a huge blow. With both the UUP and the UKUP out to get him, it might be time for a bit of own medicine for the man who has made a living accusing others of selling out.

A Leak Less Orde In Awry

The PSNI Chief Constable, Hugh Orde, in a leaked memo to senior staff has apparently criticised SF and the SDLP for their attacks on RUC members for covering up loyalist killers. Now leaving aside the fact that 'leaked' is normally a euphamism for 'press release', someone needs to grab Hugh and say NO NO NO.

You can't spin this one as being Sinn Feins fault. You cant accuse nationalists in the SDLP of making up these reports and over reacting. This isn't unfortunate or unlucky in the Malcolm McArthur sense, this is collusion, this is perversion of justice. Blaming those who criticise you is missing the wood for the splinter on the edge of the twig, on the branch on the tree in the bog down in the valley - oh.

SBP Poll

More doom and gloom for Inda in this Sundays poll.

FF 42 UP 3
FG 21 DOWN 2
LAB 12 NO CHANGE
SF 7 DOWN 1
GREEN 7 NO CHANGE
PDS 3 DOWN 1
INDS 8 UP 1

FF are now within a few per cent of majority territory, 45% might be enough to secure such a feat, considering they got a 7%+ seat bonus at the last general election.

I'm still finding it hard to believe that something won't come up between now and polling day, but time is rapidly running out. Unless the tribunals land a direct hit on the Teflon one, it looks certain that FF will be back.

The PDs are impossible to guage, they are effectively a collection of independents, so you can never bank on them one way or another. I'm still thinking wipe out and lucky to hold onto three seats.

Labour aren't doing much in the polls, but one way or another if the PDs die on their ass the red (ish) army will be in a position to do business with FF. Thats if FF need a partner of any size.

SF are on 7 and that number will rise. Not only will they get a bump from the recent decision on policing, they are also set to get two months of publicity with the assembly elections in NI.

Greens hold steady and should pick up a few seats here and thar. But if FF keep gaining then it really wont be an issue.

Independents, we'll see what the issues are closer to the day. Not likely to do as well as last time, no matter what the figures say.

Unionists Accuse SF / SDLP of Grandstanding Tactics - No Debate on Collusion

The two main unionist parties in Norn Iron have ruled out any attempts to debate RUC collusion in the murder of Catholics on the grounds that it would lead to Grandstanding by Nationalist parties.

This is of course a similar tactic to that used by Stalin in an attempt to remove critics of the fourth five year plan, (the one that was big into tractors and betamax video machines) by ruling out all debate and ruling in pogroms.

To compound their sins on this one, the DUP are defending the rights of police officers to obstruct the investigation into this matter.

The DUP's Ian Paisley Jnr claims they were within their rights to withhold co-operation because Ms O'Loan was engaged in a "fishing exercise" without any hard evidence of collusion.He has also rejected suggestions that they had moral obligation to co-operate, saying: "At the end of the day, it boils down to what is your legal right."

This is of course akin to saying a murderer being questioned by police has a legal right not to assist the policeman with his investigations, because a. the cop is only fishing for information without the evidence to prove it and b. he is acting within his legal rights.

As stupid positions go, this one really takes the biscuit.

You Are Now Entering Free Londonderry

Derry City Council have failed in their bid to change the city to Derry (dropping the London bit). In a decision which is certain to piss nationalists off from a height, Mr Justice Weatherup ruled that just because the council had changed its title to Derry, this did not mean the name specified back in the 17th century was changed. The council had wanted the government to accept its view that the name of the city is Derry rather than Londonderry.

Londonderry was established in a Royal Charter granted by King James I in 1613. The name has naturally been a source of contention. Such contention is understandable considering that London is internationally recognised as a deeply troubled area, largely populated by 'chavs' (an English variety of the common or garden spide).

Unionists can now shelve plans for they're 'I Cant believe it's not Londonderry' Ad campaign. Derry's County Board are to meet tomorrow night to determine whether the County will use the name on Jerseys in next summers Championship.