SBP Poll Results

Well it was always a possibility. After weeks of relatively minor foul ups, the government took a hit in the Red C poll. The only major surprise was the extent of the slide, 4% being fairly substantial, and the fact that the PDs did not suffer a hit as well, indeed the junior partner took a small bounce in the polls, something which may calm down an increasingly erratic Tanaiste.

The poll gives some good news to Fine Gael, although their one per cent gain is not exactly the kind of earth shattering performance that will get the pundits ready to crown Enda as the new king. They have succeeded in arresting their slide in the polls, something that had to happen, but they will need a big bump from their coming Ard Fheis to make people think they are serious challengers.

Pats performance at the Ard Fheis and the tax cut package obviously did the trick and Labours increase in the polls will help to boost the party faithful. At 14% they now have the certainty that they could form a majority govt with FF or otherwise hold real clout and bargaining power in a rainbow coalition.

The big winners in this poll and in this year are the Greens. The Greens may get a bit of a bump from the Ard Fheis, although Trevors performance was the poorest by far of any leader to date. The Greens are now in a position of great strength and judging by the comments of delegates yesterday, they know it. Conservatively they were predicting double figure returns in May. On the strength of these figures that is certainly not beyond the bounds of possibility.

The Shinners, despite getting good coverage via the Assembley elections are not making the breakthrough yet. If they dont keep up with the Greens it is conceivable that a number of their target seats in Dublin will not come off. However there remain gains for the party to take, particularly in the Donegal constituencies. But not all existing seats are safe and the Shinners will face a battle to make sizeable gains.

The Numbers were...

FF: 38% (-4) FG: 22% (+1) LAB: 14% (+2) GP: 8% (+1) SF: 7% (-) Ind (7% (-1) PD: 4% (+1) Coalitions: FF/PD: 42% (-3) FG/LAB: 36% (+3) FG/LAB/GP: 44% (+4)

Now the question that begins to emerge is has Bertie waited too long.

McDowell Runs to the Left

It appears that Pat's 18% stunt on Saturday has so completely confused Der Fuhrer, that he is now running full tilt to the left. Morning Ireland this morning had an irate Tanaiste claiming that the PDs when returned to the Reichstag would implement a 3oo euro a week pension. He claimed that in saying this that he was not trying to buy the election. Hmmmmm.

His rant also included the side swipe that while the PDs have form in increasing pensions, (remember those PD Ministers for Social Welfare) that Labour have always opposed tax cuts. Now what this of course means in reality is that the PDs have allowed the FF boys a few hand outs to the pensioners and Labour have always opposed tax cuts to the top rate - such is their want as a left wing(ish) party.

McDowell will calm down soon and hopefully in the meantime he will stay out of the way of microphones and unsuspecting opposition spokes people. In terms of guaging the success of any opposition policy announcement, how crazy Michael goes is a good rule of thumb. In this case he not only went crazy, but started abandoning his right wing credo. This round goes to the smug faced boy wearing the off-red rose.

SBP Poll

More doom and gloom for Inda in this Sundays poll.

FF 42 UP 3
FG 21 DOWN 2
LAB 12 NO CHANGE
SF 7 DOWN 1
GREEN 7 NO CHANGE
PDS 3 DOWN 1
INDS 8 UP 1

FF are now within a few per cent of majority territory, 45% might be enough to secure such a feat, considering they got a 7%+ seat bonus at the last general election.

I'm still finding it hard to believe that something won't come up between now and polling day, but time is rapidly running out. Unless the tribunals land a direct hit on the Teflon one, it looks certain that FF will be back.

The PDs are impossible to guage, they are effectively a collection of independents, so you can never bank on them one way or another. I'm still thinking wipe out and lucky to hold onto three seats.

Labour aren't doing much in the polls, but one way or another if the PDs die on their ass the red (ish) army will be in a position to do business with FF. Thats if FF need a partner of any size.

SF are on 7 and that number will rise. Not only will they get a bump from the recent decision on policing, they are also set to get two months of publicity with the assembly elections in NI.

Greens hold steady and should pick up a few seats here and thar. But if FF keep gaining then it really wont be an issue.

Independents, we'll see what the issues are closer to the day. Not likely to do as well as last time, no matter what the figures say.