SBP Poll Results

Well it was always a possibility. After weeks of relatively minor foul ups, the government took a hit in the Red C poll. The only major surprise was the extent of the slide, 4% being fairly substantial, and the fact that the PDs did not suffer a hit as well, indeed the junior partner took a small bounce in the polls, something which may calm down an increasingly erratic Tanaiste.

The poll gives some good news to Fine Gael, although their one per cent gain is not exactly the kind of earth shattering performance that will get the pundits ready to crown Enda as the new king. They have succeeded in arresting their slide in the polls, something that had to happen, but they will need a big bump from their coming Ard Fheis to make people think they are serious challengers.

Pats performance at the Ard Fheis and the tax cut package obviously did the trick and Labours increase in the polls will help to boost the party faithful. At 14% they now have the certainty that they could form a majority govt with FF or otherwise hold real clout and bargaining power in a rainbow coalition.

The big winners in this poll and in this year are the Greens. The Greens may get a bit of a bump from the Ard Fheis, although Trevors performance was the poorest by far of any leader to date. The Greens are now in a position of great strength and judging by the comments of delegates yesterday, they know it. Conservatively they were predicting double figure returns in May. On the strength of these figures that is certainly not beyond the bounds of possibility.

The Shinners, despite getting good coverage via the Assembley elections are not making the breakthrough yet. If they dont keep up with the Greens it is conceivable that a number of their target seats in Dublin will not come off. However there remain gains for the party to take, particularly in the Donegal constituencies. But not all existing seats are safe and the Shinners will face a battle to make sizeable gains.

The Numbers were...

FF: 38% (-4) FG: 22% (+1) LAB: 14% (+2) GP: 8% (+1) SF: 7% (-) Ind (7% (-1) PD: 4% (+1) Coalitions: FF/PD: 42% (-3) FG/LAB: 36% (+3) FG/LAB/GP: 44% (+4)

Now the question that begins to emerge is has Bertie waited too long.

Where is the Opposition????

Messing with the criminal justice system three months before an election, playing politics with the law, abandoning all our rights for the sake of a few cheap headlines. Words cannot express how low an act I feel that An Tanaiste is perpetrating on the Irish people in his latest reaction to gangland crime.

4 years we waited for the Minister to start recruiting the extra Garda he promised and his first step in this was a Garda reserve that as of yet numbers about 100. He promised resources and he didn't deliver. He made claims about criminals being dying wasps on their last sting. Yesterday the same guff was splurted, these new laws marked the end of gangland crime.

Minister McDowell's period in office has been marked by such knee jerk reactions to crime. It is unfortunate that as he prepares to launch the largest single assault on civil liberties in Ireland, by giving additional and unjustifiable powers to a police force desperately in need of institutional reform and proper resourcing, that the opposition has gone AWOL. Where is the voice of reason on the opposition benches to point out that this is political chicanary. Undoubtedly the shinners will scream, but their credentials will do little to help the argument. Who else will stand up and be counted.

Hard cases make bad law, and Minister McDowell was rarely anything but a hard case.

Rabbitte Pulls Coalition From the Hat

What a difference a day can make. The bold Pat has been a bit jittery of late, struggling to stay on message in the face of repeated questioning on his level of commitment to Inda. After his conference speech on Saturday night, the media focus will surely shift back to the politics and the policy, at least for a few days.

The pledge to cut the bottom rate of tax was a master stroke its brilliance exceeded only by its obviousness. Where the shock value is coming from is beyond me. This is reputedly a left wing party, it must try to outflank FF and the PAYE worker on low to medium money is not a bad place to start. Biffos statement that he would continue cutting tax at the top rate next year helps Rabbittes pledge even more, he is addressing the ordinary Joe while FF is looking after the rich man.

The eagerness with which FG grasped hold of the idea was a bit unseemly and me tooish, but it may just be the first step in turning things back round for the alternative coalition, Rabbitte may indeed have pulled it out of the hat.