New Candidates in Cavan Monaghan - Martin Turns Green

Jaundiced Ireland has heard that Cllr. Vincent P Martin has been approached by and has agreed to join the Green Party in advance of the forthcoming general election. Martin has been an outspoken member of Monaghan County Council, particularly on planning issues. He was an unsuccesful candidate in the 2002 General Election, but took a council seat in 2004. He has built a high profile in the County and is in a strong position to challenge for votes in South Monaghan. This will be a cause of concern to the newly chosen FF candidate Margaret Conlon.

Also doing the rounds in the rumour mill is the possibility that either Sean McCague (ex GAA president) or Dr Ilona Duffy may be persuaded to run as candidates for the Monaghan Hospital Alliance. Such a move would be likely to finish off any possibility of Paudge Connolly retaining his seat.

Should both of these candidates run, it will once again ensure that the Monaghan side of the constituency becomes a veritable bloodbath.

Another recount anybody.

Ides of March Comes late for Bertie

Beware the Ides of March Bertie. Well the daggers were out in the Senate yesterday for An Taoiseach. Senator Margaret Cox threatened a vote on the Finance Bill and were it not for some quick procedural footwork by FF members, she would have got it. This is an act of open warfare from the Galway Senator on her own party and one which has shocked many.

Its not clear what Cox's motives were on this. She argues that she doesn't feel Galway is getting a fair deal. Perhaps she is preparing a solo run. If so it is likely to be ill fated. Perhaps she is trying to raise her profile pre Seanad election, if so this is equally a crazy idea, considering who will be voting for her. Perhaps the only other explanation is the strangest of all, a genuine outbreak of principles on the floor of the House.

Liam Fitzgeralds attack was more straightforward and much more easy to explain, he was shafted by FF and he's gonna shaft them right back. Given the level of discord in Dublin North East and the amount of people who are supposed to have resigned or made their discontent known within the constituency organisation, this could spell trouble for the Soldiers of Destiny.

All in all, a bad day for Bertie in the Senate.

Cullen Gets it Right At Last

I'm no fan of Martin Cullens, never have been and I doubt that I ever will be, but credit where its due. The Minister has brought into play legislation which will guarantee a mimimum one years ban served on any drink driving offence. It will also reduce the remission that can be attained on longer bans.

The joke that was the system, where a one year ban meant six months and two years meant 12 months. In a country with as many road deaths as ours, this leniency was long overdue for tackling.

No Good News for FF

It is becoming increasingly apparrent that the media (or should i say MEEEJA) are not going to give FF any break in the next few months. It has been clear for some time that the Mail and Times are going to lay into the FF government at every opportunity, but this has spread to most other media outlets and there does appear to be developing a genuine anti FF bias in the media.

Now I have my issues with FF and am not averse to the notion of seeing a change in power, however its getting a bit ridiculous. Neither the Government nor FF suddenly became evil and incompetent overnight, but the media campaign is certainly ramping up in preparation for the election. (Whether you believe the Government was evil and incompetent long before this, I leave to your judgement).

It's up to others to make up their minds as to the extent of the bias, however to me it is becoming decidedly obvious. The official opposition appears to be the fourth estate. FF traditionally whinges about the media hating them, but in this case they may have a point.

Thursday Election an FF Gerrymander

It is the Taoiseachs perogative to call the date of the General Election, however this perogative should be exercised with reference to the demands of a democratic society that people should be given every opportunity to vote. Bertie does not appear to be worried by such niceties, he has an election to win and it is likely that those nasty student types wont be voting FF, but for Greens and other socialist or hippy types. He also does not want to have the people who moved to Dublin to work going home to vote after being stuck in traffic getting out of Dublin on a Friday. Bollix to dat says Bertie.

The Thursday election should by now be an anachronism in Irish politics, we should have moved away from those days. The point should be to allow as many as possible to exercise their franchise and hang the expense of the overtime at the count.

Noise needs to be made about this. It is not a small issue, it is one which is critical. We have to many pious words about needing to increase participation from politicians. When words are matched by these actions it leaves you in no doubt what they feel about young voters.

Viva El Presidente

Well the Soldiers of Density have gotten round to launching the posters and it comes as zero surprise that they are leading with Bertie. It was always an outside chance that Martin Cullen would be heading up their campaign I suppose.

The slogan is good stuff, Peace Prosperity etc etc and Bertie sitting behind the Taoiseachs desk. The message is very clear, "dont piss it all away - vote FF".

Leading with Bertie has been FFs strategy for so long that its hard to remember how we ever got on without the likeable auld so and so. The Bertiegate affair proved that Bertie is virtually untouchable.

It begins now. The shutting up of Cullen and Roche. From now on its about Bertie, no one else will matter at national level for Fianna Fail. Can Bertie keep persuading us as interest rates rise and jobs go left right and centre, that he's still in control.

Watch this space, El Presidente is warming up for the fight.

Interest May Rise and Support May Fall

The prospect as indicated in this mornings Irish Independent of a further five rises in interest rates this year may become a feature in the coming election. With a rise due next week, it is highly likely that there will be a further rise pre - election. By May, mortgage holders will be facing further strain in paying the bills.

The reports that Irish financial institutions have begun repossessing houses will have sent a chill up the spine of anyone who remembers Thatcher's UK in the 80s. The Labour posters posing the question 'But Are You Happy?' may well find a few more negative answers. This kind of doom and gloom can spread easily in the pubs and at the watercoolers.

The Letters Page

A couple of gems in the letters page of the Irish Times today. One a rant by the surgical staff in Beaumont Hospital regarding the abuse they are getting from all sides and the terrible conditions in which they work. Fair enough arguments all round. Unfortunately the Irish Health System appears to be structured in a manner best suited to facilitate the game of pass the buck. Comhairle na hOispideal, RCSI, HSE and the Minister all completely blameless. But that is the way it has been for some time.

The other letter which caught my eye was from a prospective candidate in the General. He was opining the fact that the Rabbitte coalition saga is detracting attention from the issues. Of course he is assuming anyone is going to care about the issues. Or even that anybody other than Primetime and the Newspapers are going to argue them anyway. Its gonna take more than Pat Rabbitte to get people focussed on issues other than their SSIA bonus or their cupla quid extra thanks to the budget.

Ireland doesn't do issues.

Hanafin Keeps a Straight Face While Describing Public Sector as Efficient

The big news of the weekend was the announcement that the OECD are going to be allowed to get their teeth into the Irish Public Service, with a major study being announced by An T T Taoiseach.

The timing of this is perfect for FF, any adverse publicity pre - election can be referred to the report which the Government have set up. Should FF get back in, they will have a mandate to make changes, should they fail to get back in they will conveniently forget that they commissioned this report and rubbish it whenever those nasty Fine Gaelers try to attack our poor hard working civil servants.

The laugh of the day had to be this mornings Morning Ireland interview, when she claimed that most Irish people would be very happy with the level of public service provision in Ireland. I think it's fair to say even she struggled to keep a straight face saying it, but thats the beauty of radio, we'll never know.

Waterford 1 - 0 Mayo

It really looks like it will be a US style election. Not only do we have negative campaigning, but now it appears that party discipline has been fired out the window as well. John Deasys comments regarding the future tenure of party leader Enda Kenny really shouldn't surprise us all that much. He comes from argumentative stock that Deasy boy. If his daddy wasn't trying a vote of no confidence in his leader, then it was considered a bad year. What really must be seen as depressing for FGers (yes both of them) is the amateur hour manner in which the crisis has been handled. First Damien English allows himself to be used by the media as a second stalking horse. Then Enda issues his response which merely serves to stoke up the controversy further.About the only good thing, and it may prove to be a very good thing, is getting these fiascos out of the way early in the campaign. This would have been a complete disaster had it happened in April, as it is, it'll blow over fairly quickly. It does leave a fairly stark choice for voters in Waterford though, because unless Cullen gets re elected in a FF Govt, one of our largest cities will be sans Minister. Deasy's political rehabilitation, such as it was, ended last week in yet another puff of smoke.

And So It Begins

Runners and riders are now well and truly under orders as the unofficial election campaign gets started.

Fine Gael look set to have taken the campaign down a notch with their attack on Michael McDowell. It doesn't appear as if much sympathy will flow in the direction of the PD fuhrer, however many may mourn the introduction of American style campaigning into the Irish political landscape. Who knows though it could be fun.

Bertie sitting looking into the camera, choking back a tear and saying, I'm An T T Taoiseach and I approve dis message. Pan back to a slick ad which turns Inda from a simple Mayo boy into a mass murderer.

In a system where there are few ideological differences, it becomes about personality, when there is little personality it becomes about altering perception of personality, when all else fails, just hurl a load of shit and hope that some of it will stick.

Fine Gael have gone back to the drawing board following the revelation that Bertie is indeed untouchable and have decided to target the PD's. But what can that achieve. Target the PD seats and try and make FF TDs guilty by association. If it is an actual strategy, then I hope that it's not one that they are paying the Yankees big bucks for.

Anyway the race is on. And just so we can look back on it in a few months time, here are the prices with Boyle Sports on who will form the next Government.


Fianna Fail & Progressive Democrats
11/10
Fianna Fail & Labour
9/4
Fine Gael / Labour & Green's
3/1
Fine Gael & Labour
10/1
Fianna Fail On Their Own
12/1
Fianna Fail & Greens
14/1
Fianna Fail & Sinn Fein
16/1
Fine Gael / Labour & Progressive Democrats
33/1