The latest round of EU wide statistics have been completed - where would lazy journalists be without Eurobarometer. In the last year Ireland had the third highest rate of investment in overseas countries. We've so much money at this stage, we cant spend it here any more we're sending it all overseas.
A part of the 35bn which left Irish shores was a significant repatriation of funds to the US as a result of a tax amnesty, however, there was still a very significant level of investment by Irish people in projects overseas. This is obviously in part a reflection that the days when an easy killing could be made in the Irish property market is over and now Irish investors are looking to buy houses and appartments elsewhere. It is also a sign of Irish enterprises making significant aquisitions of property and business interest overseas.
The only worry in all of this is it further demonstrates that Ireland is not the investors market it once was and if we are shipping our own cash overseas it is liklely others may do likewise.
Wednesday 28 February 2007
Tuesday 27 February 2007
Stardust Campaigner to Run in Dublin
The maths in Dublin North Central just got more complicated with the announcement that Antoinette Keegan, a survivor of the Stardust Tragedy, will seek election in the coming battle. The candidate will be seeking to raise the pressure on the government to launch an enquiry into the tragedy.
Dublin North Central is a four seater and is home to Sean Haughey, Ivor Callely, Finian McGrath and Richard Bruton. With Derek McDowell and Green Bronwen Maher also in the field plus two Sinn Fein candidates, this would already be a tricky constituency to win in. Whether Antoinette Keegan can win is debatable, but she will certainly gain profile for this issue.
Dublin North Central is a four seater and is home to Sean Haughey, Ivor Callely, Finian McGrath and Richard Bruton. With Derek McDowell and Green Bronwen Maher also in the field plus two Sinn Fein candidates, this would already be a tricky constituency to win in. Whether Antoinette Keegan can win is debatable, but she will certainly gain profile for this issue.
Monday 26 February 2007
Competition Authority Miss The Point
The Competition Authority has warned IBEC and in particular its food and drink sub group for saying that there was likely to be a rise in price due to increased costs faced by business. The Competition body appears to be saying that IBEC is attempting to lead prices.
The purpose of the IBEC statement and statements which have been made by a number of other groups such as Chambers and ISME, is that increased costs faced by business, many of which have been levied by government agencies, make our prices higher and our economy uncompetitive. Food price inflation has for a number of years been below the real inflation rate.
If the Competition Authority wants to see a competitive market it would do well to look at the Governments role.
The purpose of the IBEC statement and statements which have been made by a number of other groups such as Chambers and ISME, is that increased costs faced by business, many of which have been levied by government agencies, make our prices higher and our economy uncompetitive. Food price inflation has for a number of years been below the real inflation rate.
If the Competition Authority wants to see a competitive market it would do well to look at the Governments role.
Sunday 25 February 2007
Connolly In talks
Fianna Fails attempts to tempt Hugh Mohan to stand in Cavan Monaghan have run into problems again and Paudge Connolly appears to be keen on offering them a plan B. Cavan Monaghan remains a problem constituency for FF strategists.
There has been some suggestion that FF had nearly landed Mohan, but that he was somewhat spooked by the level of media coverage which surrounded his possible selection. It is not clear that Mohan is ready to do the deal.
If Mohan does not step up to the mark, Connolly might see the FF ticket as his one chance to hold on to his seat. There is a fairly wide spread belief that Connolly is vulnerable, not only from other candidates but also from the lack of endorsement from the respected Hospital Alliance in Monaghan. Connolly was the self selected hospital candidate in 2002 - that ruffled many feathers - and there are definitely those who would like to see him beaten. The Alliance running their own candidate is not beyond the realms of possibility.
To add a little more flavour to the stew, former FF councillor Ray Aughey is now threatening to run. His intention not to win, but to cause as much harm as possible to any parachute candidate that head office would impose.
Ah Monaghan, never a dull moment.
There has been some suggestion that FF had nearly landed Mohan, but that he was somewhat spooked by the level of media coverage which surrounded his possible selection. It is not clear that Mohan is ready to do the deal.
If Mohan does not step up to the mark, Connolly might see the FF ticket as his one chance to hold on to his seat. There is a fairly wide spread belief that Connolly is vulnerable, not only from other candidates but also from the lack of endorsement from the respected Hospital Alliance in Monaghan. Connolly was the self selected hospital candidate in 2002 - that ruffled many feathers - and there are definitely those who would like to see him beaten. The Alliance running their own candidate is not beyond the realms of possibility.
To add a little more flavour to the stew, former FF councillor Ray Aughey is now threatening to run. His intention not to win, but to cause as much harm as possible to any parachute candidate that head office would impose.
Ah Monaghan, never a dull moment.
SBP Poll Results
Well it was always a possibility. After weeks of relatively minor foul ups, the government took a hit in the Red C poll. The only major surprise was the extent of the slide, 4% being fairly substantial, and the fact that the PDs did not suffer a hit as well, indeed the junior partner took a small bounce in the polls, something which may calm down an increasingly erratic Tanaiste.
The poll gives some good news to Fine Gael, although their one per cent gain is not exactly the kind of earth shattering performance that will get the pundits ready to crown Enda as the new king. They have succeeded in arresting their slide in the polls, something that had to happen, but they will need a big bump from their coming Ard Fheis to make people think they are serious challengers.
Pats performance at the Ard Fheis and the tax cut package obviously did the trick and Labours increase in the polls will help to boost the party faithful. At 14% they now have the certainty that they could form a majority govt with FF or otherwise hold real clout and bargaining power in a rainbow coalition.
The big winners in this poll and in this year are the Greens. The Greens may get a bit of a bump from the Ard Fheis, although Trevors performance was the poorest by far of any leader to date. The Greens are now in a position of great strength and judging by the comments of delegates yesterday, they know it. Conservatively they were predicting double figure returns in May. On the strength of these figures that is certainly not beyond the bounds of possibility.
The Shinners, despite getting good coverage via the Assembley elections are not making the breakthrough yet. If they dont keep up with the Greens it is conceivable that a number of their target seats in Dublin will not come off. However there remain gains for the party to take, particularly in the Donegal constituencies. But not all existing seats are safe and the Shinners will face a battle to make sizeable gains.
The Numbers were...
FF: 38% (-4) FG: 22% (+1) LAB: 14% (+2) GP: 8% (+1) SF: 7% (-) Ind (7% (-1) PD: 4% (+1) Coalitions: FF/PD: 42% (-3) FG/LAB: 36% (+3) FG/LAB/GP: 44% (+4)
Now the question that begins to emerge is has Bertie waited too long.
The poll gives some good news to Fine Gael, although their one per cent gain is not exactly the kind of earth shattering performance that will get the pundits ready to crown Enda as the new king. They have succeeded in arresting their slide in the polls, something that had to happen, but they will need a big bump from their coming Ard Fheis to make people think they are serious challengers.
Pats performance at the Ard Fheis and the tax cut package obviously did the trick and Labours increase in the polls will help to boost the party faithful. At 14% they now have the certainty that they could form a majority govt with FF or otherwise hold real clout and bargaining power in a rainbow coalition.
The big winners in this poll and in this year are the Greens. The Greens may get a bit of a bump from the Ard Fheis, although Trevors performance was the poorest by far of any leader to date. The Greens are now in a position of great strength and judging by the comments of delegates yesterday, they know it. Conservatively they were predicting double figure returns in May. On the strength of these figures that is certainly not beyond the bounds of possibility.
The Shinners, despite getting good coverage via the Assembley elections are not making the breakthrough yet. If they dont keep up with the Greens it is conceivable that a number of their target seats in Dublin will not come off. However there remain gains for the party to take, particularly in the Donegal constituencies. But not all existing seats are safe and the Shinners will face a battle to make sizeable gains.
The Numbers were...
FF: 38% (-4) FG: 22% (+1) LAB: 14% (+2) GP: 8% (+1) SF: 7% (-) Ind (7% (-1) PD: 4% (+1) Coalitions: FF/PD: 42% (-3) FG/LAB: 36% (+3) FG/LAB/GP: 44% (+4)
Now the question that begins to emerge is has Bertie waited too long.
Wednesday 14 February 2007
Where is the Opposition????
Messing with the criminal justice system three months before an election, playing politics with the law, abandoning all our rights for the sake of a few cheap headlines. Words cannot express how low an act I feel that An Tanaiste is perpetrating on the Irish people in his latest reaction to gangland crime.
4 years we waited for the Minister to start recruiting the extra Garda he promised and his first step in this was a Garda reserve that as of yet numbers about 100. He promised resources and he didn't deliver. He made claims about criminals being dying wasps on their last sting. Yesterday the same guff was splurted, these new laws marked the end of gangland crime.
Minister McDowell's period in office has been marked by such knee jerk reactions to crime. It is unfortunate that as he prepares to launch the largest single assault on civil liberties in Ireland, by giving additional and unjustifiable powers to a police force desperately in need of institutional reform and proper resourcing, that the opposition has gone AWOL. Where is the voice of reason on the opposition benches to point out that this is political chicanary. Undoubtedly the shinners will scream, but their credentials will do little to help the argument. Who else will stand up and be counted.
Hard cases make bad law, and Minister McDowell was rarely anything but a hard case.
4 years we waited for the Minister to start recruiting the extra Garda he promised and his first step in this was a Garda reserve that as of yet numbers about 100. He promised resources and he didn't deliver. He made claims about criminals being dying wasps on their last sting. Yesterday the same guff was splurted, these new laws marked the end of gangland crime.
Minister McDowell's period in office has been marked by such knee jerk reactions to crime. It is unfortunate that as he prepares to launch the largest single assault on civil liberties in Ireland, by giving additional and unjustifiable powers to a police force desperately in need of institutional reform and proper resourcing, that the opposition has gone AWOL. Where is the voice of reason on the opposition benches to point out that this is political chicanary. Undoubtedly the shinners will scream, but their credentials will do little to help the argument. Who else will stand up and be counted.
Hard cases make bad law, and Minister McDowell was rarely anything but a hard case.
Tuesday 13 February 2007
The Miracle of the Many Faced Bob
Captain Bob McCartney is out to get rid of the Reverend once and for all. After years of animosity and the virtual death of the Ulster Unionists as anything more than a sop to the blue rinse brigade, Bob is out to hit the Doc hard and destroy his chances of becoming first Minister.
In any other country we would laugh at the notion of a candidate running in more than one constituency. Sure it's been done before, but it rarely works. But this is not any other country, this is the crazy world of Northern Irish politics, where Presidential campaigning is the key and where McCartney, although despised by many, is similarly revered by plenty.
UKUP will have other candidates running, but it is to Bob that they will be looking to do real damage. If as the Doc says, the only party who can beat Sinn Fein is the DUP (duh) then any split in the Unionist vote will be a huge blow. With both the UUP and the UKUP out to get him, it might be time for a bit of own medicine for the man who has made a living accusing others of selling out.
In any other country we would laugh at the notion of a candidate running in more than one constituency. Sure it's been done before, but it rarely works. But this is not any other country, this is the crazy world of Northern Irish politics, where Presidential campaigning is the key and where McCartney, although despised by many, is similarly revered by plenty.
UKUP will have other candidates running, but it is to Bob that they will be looking to do real damage. If as the Doc says, the only party who can beat Sinn Fein is the DUP (duh) then any split in the Unionist vote will be a huge blow. With both the UUP and the UKUP out to get him, it might be time for a bit of own medicine for the man who has made a living accusing others of selling out.
McDowell Runs to the Left
It appears that Pat's 18% stunt on Saturday has so completely confused Der Fuhrer, that he is now running full tilt to the left. Morning Ireland this morning had an irate Tanaiste claiming that the PDs when returned to the Reichstag would implement a 3oo euro a week pension. He claimed that in saying this that he was not trying to buy the election. Hmmmmm.
His rant also included the side swipe that while the PDs have form in increasing pensions, (remember those PD Ministers for Social Welfare) that Labour have always opposed tax cuts. Now what this of course means in reality is that the PDs have allowed the FF boys a few hand outs to the pensioners and Labour have always opposed tax cuts to the top rate - such is their want as a left wing(ish) party.
McDowell will calm down soon and hopefully in the meantime he will stay out of the way of microphones and unsuspecting opposition spokes people. In terms of guaging the success of any opposition policy announcement, how crazy Michael goes is a good rule of thumb. In this case he not only went crazy, but started abandoning his right wing credo. This round goes to the smug faced boy wearing the off-red rose.
His rant also included the side swipe that while the PDs have form in increasing pensions, (remember those PD Ministers for Social Welfare) that Labour have always opposed tax cuts. Now what this of course means in reality is that the PDs have allowed the FF boys a few hand outs to the pensioners and Labour have always opposed tax cuts to the top rate - such is their want as a left wing(ish) party.
McDowell will calm down soon and hopefully in the meantime he will stay out of the way of microphones and unsuspecting opposition spokes people. In terms of guaging the success of any opposition policy announcement, how crazy Michael goes is a good rule of thumb. In this case he not only went crazy, but started abandoning his right wing credo. This round goes to the smug faced boy wearing the off-red rose.
Monday 12 February 2007
It's the Little Things
With the economy doing pretty well (no one say Pfizer) if anything screws the government, it will be quality of life issues such as health, education, and transport. Transport is one where with Minister Clueless at the helm, they are seen to have performed particularly badly.
Cullen will be the focus of much debate in the coming months and his performance must rank at the lower end of the spectrum in this government. He is a soft target and further revelations about NRA advice on the port tunnell and the continuing mess that is Dublin's traffic system atest to his failure to get to grips with his brief. His appointment of Tom Mulcahey indicates a complete lack of political responsibility.
Todays Indo has a small piece on commute times by bus. This gives some indication of just how badly Cullen is failing in his brief.
Fortunately for him, they seem to love him down Waterford way.
From the Irish Independent
The survey shows:
* A car will travel from Bray to Foxrock Church 7.34 minutes faster than a bus which takes 27.06 minutes.
*TBallymun to Dorset Street Lower: a bus travels in 20.33 minutes, compared with 20 minutes for a car.
* West of the M50 to Camden Street: a bus takes 41.45 minutes, a car does the trip 2.29 minutes faster.
* Raheny to Fairview: a car takes 25 minutes, a bus 1.32 minutes longer.
Cullen will be the focus of much debate in the coming months and his performance must rank at the lower end of the spectrum in this government. He is a soft target and further revelations about NRA advice on the port tunnell and the continuing mess that is Dublin's traffic system atest to his failure to get to grips with his brief. His appointment of Tom Mulcahey indicates a complete lack of political responsibility.
Todays Indo has a small piece on commute times by bus. This gives some indication of just how badly Cullen is failing in his brief.
Fortunately for him, they seem to love him down Waterford way.
From the Irish Independent
The survey shows:
* A car will travel from Bray to Foxrock Church 7.34 minutes faster than a bus which takes 27.06 minutes.
*TBallymun to Dorset Street Lower: a bus travels in 20.33 minutes, compared with 20 minutes for a car.
* West of the M50 to Camden Street: a bus takes 41.45 minutes, a car does the trip 2.29 minutes faster.
* Raheny to Fairview: a car takes 25 minutes, a bus 1.32 minutes longer.
Rabbitte Pulls Coalition From the Hat
What a difference a day can make. The bold Pat has been a bit jittery of late, struggling to stay on message in the face of repeated questioning on his level of commitment to Inda. After his conference speech on Saturday night, the media focus will surely shift back to the politics and the policy, at least for a few days.
The pledge to cut the bottom rate of tax was a master stroke its brilliance exceeded only by its obviousness. Where the shock value is coming from is beyond me. This is reputedly a left wing party, it must try to outflank FF and the PAYE worker on low to medium money is not a bad place to start. Biffos statement that he would continue cutting tax at the top rate next year helps Rabbittes pledge even more, he is addressing the ordinary Joe while FF is looking after the rich man.
The eagerness with which FG grasped hold of the idea was a bit unseemly and me tooish, but it may just be the first step in turning things back round for the alternative coalition, Rabbitte may indeed have pulled it out of the hat.
The pledge to cut the bottom rate of tax was a master stroke its brilliance exceeded only by its obviousness. Where the shock value is coming from is beyond me. This is reputedly a left wing party, it must try to outflank FF and the PAYE worker on low to medium money is not a bad place to start. Biffos statement that he would continue cutting tax at the top rate next year helps Rabbittes pledge even more, he is addressing the ordinary Joe while FF is looking after the rich man.
The eagerness with which FG grasped hold of the idea was a bit unseemly and me tooish, but it may just be the first step in turning things back round for the alternative coalition, Rabbitte may indeed have pulled it out of the hat.
Tuesday 6 February 2007
FF to Parachute Mohan
FF appear set to parachute Hugh Mohan SC as candidate in the Cavan Monaghan constituency. Party HQ have been trying to persuade the former Bar Council Chair to run for some time and it appears they now have their man. It is thought that in a future FF government, Mohan would be the favourite candidate for Attorney General gig.
Mohan had made it clear that he would not run in his home constituency unless some guarantees were given in relation to Monaghan General Hospital. Many felt that such assurances could not be given by FF given Mary Harneys resolute stance on the future of the Monaghan site.
This move may however cause division in County Monaghan. A number of local candidates had indicated their intention to seek the nomination. Benny Kieran has missed out for the second time in a row, having been removed from the ticket in 2002. Seamus Coyle has also missed out. It was not clear as to whether Robbie Gallagher, the 2002 candidate intended running. These three potential candidates were dotted throughout the Monaghan half of the constituency and it is possible that FF HQ have alienated many volunteers in towns throughout Monaghan.
With Cavan Monaghan a four seater this time, Mohan is a high profile candidate, but not a local resident. It will be interesting to see how his arrival on the scene will be viewed by the electorate.
Mohan had made it clear that he would not run in his home constituency unless some guarantees were given in relation to Monaghan General Hospital. Many felt that such assurances could not be given by FF given Mary Harneys resolute stance on the future of the Monaghan site.
This move may however cause division in County Monaghan. A number of local candidates had indicated their intention to seek the nomination. Benny Kieran has missed out for the second time in a row, having been removed from the ticket in 2002. Seamus Coyle has also missed out. It was not clear as to whether Robbie Gallagher, the 2002 candidate intended running. These three potential candidates were dotted throughout the Monaghan half of the constituency and it is possible that FF HQ have alienated many volunteers in towns throughout Monaghan.
With Cavan Monaghan a four seater this time, Mohan is a high profile candidate, but not a local resident. It will be interesting to see how his arrival on the scene will be viewed by the electorate.
Business Calls for Carbon Tax
Energy being the flavour of the month, with the EPA about to publish a document showing our first emissions rise in four years, Chambers Ireland have published a policy document calling for a shadow Carbon Tax.
The Chambers, the largest business organisation in Ireland, argued that a Carbon Tax was needed to change consumption patterns. However it was argued that business did not trust government to implement the tax and as such wished to see the development of a model which would be revenue neutral and would not destroy the competitiveness of Irish business.
We await the reactions of the Government and the Greens in relation to the EPA report and the Chambers call.
The Chambers, the largest business organisation in Ireland, argued that a Carbon Tax was needed to change consumption patterns. However it was argued that business did not trust government to implement the tax and as such wished to see the development of a model which would be revenue neutral and would not destroy the competitiveness of Irish business.
We await the reactions of the Government and the Greens in relation to the EPA report and the Chambers call.
Monday 5 February 2007
After Bertie?
The biggest loser in the Frank Luntz examination of Irish voters attitudes (Rte's Week in Politics) was Brian Cowan. Only 1/3rd of people questioned in the survey thought that Cowan looked like leadership material. If this was a nasty surprise for Biffo, it will surely come as a bonus to his rivals.
The obvious options are Ministers Hanafin, Ahern and Martin. Each one of these will take great comfort in the fact that Irelands answer to Gordon Brown is no longer looking like such a certainty to land the role.
This will be a crucial decision for Fianna Fail. If you factor the changed political atmosphere in which Bertie has operated, it is possible to claim he has been their most popular leader ever. Without him, they are facing many of the same challenges that Fine Gael have faced. Picking a leader with voter appeal is critical. While Biffo maybe popular with the party, he may not play to well with an increasingly image conscious electorate.
This could open a debate within Fianna Fail and should it do so, it will not be good for Brian Cowan. It could also lead to an interesting split. The timing of this will of course depend on the election. If FF win, then its 18 months away, if they lose then its mid summer madness for the Soldiers of Density.
The obvious options are Ministers Hanafin, Ahern and Martin. Each one of these will take great comfort in the fact that Irelands answer to Gordon Brown is no longer looking like such a certainty to land the role.
This will be a crucial decision for Fianna Fail. If you factor the changed political atmosphere in which Bertie has operated, it is possible to claim he has been their most popular leader ever. Without him, they are facing many of the same challenges that Fine Gael have faced. Picking a leader with voter appeal is critical. While Biffo maybe popular with the party, he may not play to well with an increasingly image conscious electorate.
This could open a debate within Fianna Fail and should it do so, it will not be good for Brian Cowan. It could also lead to an interesting split. The timing of this will of course depend on the election. If FF win, then its 18 months away, if they lose then its mid summer madness for the Soldiers of Density.
Thursday 1 February 2007
Two Trips to the Polls?
The Government or at least Der Fuhrer has announced his intention that the referenda on Childrens rights will be held prior to the General Election. If this turns out to be true, there will be the insane spectacle of millions of pounds being needlessly wasted on a referendum, which while important, could be dove tailed with the election. Common sense says merge the two, either with a May date or that the referendum gets called in March and the Government jumps early and saves the taxpayer a few bob (and avoids any banana skins)
Next item on the agenda is who will apply for the Referendum Commission funding which is available to oppose the rights of the child. Could this be the pay day Jade Goody needs now her career is fecked.
Next item on the agenda is who will apply for the Referendum Commission funding which is available to oppose the rights of the child. Could this be the pay day Jade Goody needs now her career is fecked.
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